Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and U.S. Bank project real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.2% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Q2 2026 growth registered 1.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 stands at approximately 4.0%, reflecting underlying strength despite some quarterly volatility. Monetary policy remains data-dependent amid moderating but still-elevated inflation readings around 3%. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical tensions that could spike energy prices, sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration, or significant downward revisions to incoming data that might tip the economy into contraction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/28
はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and U.S. Bank project real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.2% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Q2 2026 growth registered 1.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 stands at approximately 4.0%, reflecting underlying strength despite some quarterly volatility. Monetary policy remains data-dependent amid moderating but still-elevated inflation readings around 3%. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical tensions that could spike energy prices, sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration, or significant downward revisions to incoming data that might tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and U.S. Bank project real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.2% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Q2 2026 growth registered 1.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 stands at approximately 4.0%, reflecting underlying strength despite some quarterly volatility. Monetary policy remains data-dependent amid moderating but still-elevated inflation readings around 3%. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical tensions that could spike energy prices, sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration, or significant downward revisions to incoming data that might tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and U.S. Bank project real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.2% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Q2 2026 growth registered 1.5% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 stands at approximately 4.0%, reflecting underlying strength despite some quarterly volatility. Monetary policy remains data-dependent amid moderating but still-elevated inflation readings around 3%. Tail risks include escalation of geopolitical tensions that could spike energy prices, sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration, or significant downward revisions to incoming data that might tip the economy into contraction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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