Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual GDP growth, with Q2 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists centering on 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending supported by wealth effects and fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have sustained above-trend activity despite softening consumer affordability and tariff-related headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance around the 3.5–3.75% federal funds range reflects balanced risks, consistent with skin-in-the-game trader consensus. Tail risks remain from sharper inflation surprises prompting tighter financial conditions, accelerated labor-market softening, or energy-price shocks that could compress growth below zero before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/28
はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual GDP growth, with Q2 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists centering on 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending supported by wealth effects and fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have sustained above-trend activity despite softening consumer affordability and tariff-related headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance around the 3.5–3.75% federal funds range reflects balanced risks, consistent with skin-in-the-game trader consensus. Tail risks remain from sharper inflation surprises prompting tighter financial conditions, accelerated labor-market softening, or energy-price shocks that could compress growth below zero before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual GDP growth, with Q2 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists centering on 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending supported by wealth effects and fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have sustained above-trend activity despite softening consumer affordability and tariff-related headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance around the 3.5–3.75% federal funds range reflects balanced risks, consistent with skin-in-the-game trader consensus. Tail risks remain from sharper inflation surprises prompting tighter financial conditions, accelerated labor-market softening, or energy-price shocks that could compress growth below zero before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual GDP growth, with Q2 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists centering on 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending supported by wealth effects and fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have sustained above-trend activity despite softening consumer affordability and tariff-related headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance around the 3.5–3.75% federal funds range reflects balanced risks, consistent with skin-in-the-game trader consensus. Tail risks remain from sharper inflation surprises prompting tighter financial conditions, accelerated labor-market softening, or energy-price shocks that could compress growth below zero before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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