Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth—below consensus and following Q1's 2.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion near 2%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by wider trade deficits from tech imports, inventory drawdowns, and energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Institutional forecasts from sources like the CBO and Vanguard cluster around 2.0-2.3%, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% ranges. Key swing factors include the pace of AI capital expenditure, potential tariff and immigration policy effects on labor and costs, and any Federal Reserve response to sticky inflation, with the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can sustain above-trend growth through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.5〜2.0％ 35.0%
2.0〜2.5％ 32%
>2.5％ 20%
1.0〜1.5％ 8.9%
$58,052 Vol.
$58,052 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
7%
0.5～1.0％
2%
1.0〜1.5％
9%
1.5〜2.0％
35%
2.0〜2.5％
32%
>2.5％
20%
1.5〜2.0％ 35.0%
2.0〜2.5％ 32%
>2.5％ 20%
1.0〜1.5％ 8.9%
$58,052 Vol.
$58,052 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$7,439 Vol.
7%
0.5～1.0％
$17,161 Vol.
2%
1.0〜1.5％
$3,814 Vol.
9%
1.5〜2.0％
$6,622 Vol.
35%
2.0〜2.5％
$7,085 Vol.
32%
>2.5％
$15,931 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth—below consensus and following Q1's 2.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion near 2%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by wider trade deficits from tech imports, inventory drawdowns, and energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Institutional forecasts from sources like the CBO and Vanguard cluster around 2.0-2.3%, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% ranges. Key swing factors include the pace of AI capital expenditure, potential tariff and immigration policy effects on labor and costs, and any Federal Reserve response to sticky inflation, with the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can sustain above-trend growth through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$58,052終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth—below consensus and following Q1's 2.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion near 2%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by wider trade deficits from tech imports, inventory drawdowns, and energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Institutional forecasts from sources like the CBO and Vanguard cluster around 2.0-2.3%, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% ranges. Key swing factors include the pace of AI capital expenditure, potential tariff and immigration policy effects on labor and costs, and any Federal Reserve response to sticky inflation, with the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can sustain above-trend growth through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$58,052終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth—below consensus and following Q1's 2.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion near 2%, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by wider trade deficits from tech imports, inventory drawdowns, and energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Institutional forecasts from sources like the CBO and Vanguard cluster around 2.0-2.3%, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% ranges. Key swing factors include the pace of AI capital expenditure, potential tariff and immigration policy effects on labor and costs, and any Federal Reserve response to sticky inflation, with the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can sustain above-trend growth through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問