Market-implied odds assign the highest probability (47%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by trader consensus around fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, which is expected to lift consumer spending and business investment while supporting a rebound from the late-2025 government shutdown. Q1 2026 growth printed at a revised 1.6% annualized rate, below the advance estimate, reflecting softer investment and consumption amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.2% and 2.5%, with headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth from immigration changes limiting upside. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and employment remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日>2.5％ 47%
1.5〜2.0％ 17.9%
2.0〜2.5％ 15%
1.0〜1.5％ 11.5%
$30,024 Vol.
$30,024 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
5%
0.5～1.0％
5%
1.0〜1.5％
12%
1.5〜2.0％
18%
2.0〜2.5％
15%
>2.5％
47%
>2.5％ 47%
1.5〜2.0％ 17.9%
2.0〜2.5％ 15%
1.0〜1.5％ 11.5%
$30,024 Vol.
$30,024 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$4,114 Vol.
5%
0.5～1.0％
$15,520 Vol.
5%
1.0〜1.5％
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1.5〜2.0％
$1,982 Vol.
18%
2.0〜2.5％
$2,150 Vol.
15%
>2.5％
$4,322 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds assign the highest probability (47%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by trader consensus around fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, which is expected to lift consumer spending and business investment while supporting a rebound from the late-2025 government shutdown. Q1 2026 growth printed at a revised 1.6% annualized rate, below the advance estimate, reflecting softer investment and consumption amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.2% and 2.5%, with headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth from immigration changes limiting upside. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and employment remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$30,024終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds assign the highest probability (47%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by trader consensus around fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, which is expected to lift consumer spending and business investment while supporting a rebound from the late-2025 government shutdown. Q1 2026 growth printed at a revised 1.6% annualized rate, below the advance estimate, reflecting softer investment and consumption amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.2% and 2.5%, with headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth from immigration changes limiting upside. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and employment remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$30,024終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds assign the highest probability (47%) to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by trader consensus around fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, which is expected to lift consumer spending and business investment while supporting a rebound from the late-2025 government shutdown. Q1 2026 growth printed at a revised 1.6% annualized rate, below the advance estimate, reflecting softer investment and consumption amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.2% and 2.5%, with headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth from immigration changes limiting upside. The June FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and employment remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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