Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota holds an edge in New York’s 1st congressional district on eastern Long Island, where the seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles yet delivered narrower margins than many solidly red districts. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring candidates including Christopher Gallant, introduces uncertainty over the eventual challenger and turnout dynamics, while limited polling from late 2025 showed LaLota with a slim advantage. Traders appear to weigh the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition against potential national midterm headwinds and the district’s mix of suburban and coastal voters, keeping implied probabilities for each party closely aligned ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,697 Vol.
$30,697 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
49%
民主党
43%
$30,697 Vol.
$30,697 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,094 Vol.
49%
民主党
$21,604 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota holds an edge in New York’s 1st congressional district on eastern Long Island, where the seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles yet delivered narrower margins than many solidly red districts. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring candidates including Christopher Gallant, introduces uncertainty over the eventual challenger and turnout dynamics, while limited polling from late 2025 showed LaLota with a slim advantage. Traders appear to weigh the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition against potential national midterm headwinds and the district’s mix of suburban and coastal voters, keeping implied probabilities for each party closely aligned ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$30,697終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota holds an edge in New York’s 1st congressional district on eastern Long Island, where the seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles yet delivered narrower margins than many solidly red districts. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring candidates including Christopher Gallant, introduces uncertainty over the eventual challenger and turnout dynamics, while limited polling from late 2025 showed LaLota with a slim advantage. Traders appear to weigh the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition against potential national midterm headwinds and the district’s mix of suburban and coastal voters, keeping implied probabilities for each party closely aligned ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,697終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota holds an edge in New York’s 1st congressional district on eastern Long Island, where the seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles yet delivered narrower margins than many solidly red districts. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring candidates including Christopher Gallant, introduces uncertainty over the eventual challenger and turnout dynamics, while limited polling from late 2025 showed LaLota with a slim advantage. Traders appear to weigh the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition against potential national midterm headwinds and the district’s mix of suburban and coastal voters, keeping implied probabilities for each party closely aligned ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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