Exit polls and quick counts from the April 12-13 Peruvian presidential first-round election, including Ipsos at 16.6% and Datum at 16.5% for Keiko Fujimori, position her well ahead of rivals like Rafael López Aliaga (12.8%), Jorge Nieto (11.6%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (around 12%), implying a margin exceeding 5% over the runner-up in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates. Logistical delays extended voting into April 13 and slowed official tallies by the National Jury of Elections, but these early results from 95%+ quick counts confirm her lead, driving trader consensus to 87% on Fujimori's 5%+ victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7. Pre-election Ipsos simulacros in early April reinforced her polling dominance amid voter fatigue with instability. Final certification could adjust probabilities if rural or absentee ballots shift the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上 87.8%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％ 12.3%
その他 2.9%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+ <1%
$293,131 Vol.
$293,131 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 10-15%
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 5-10％
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ <5％
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ 5％以上
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ <5％
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上
88%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％
12%
ホルヘ・ニエト
<1%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
<1%
ヴォルフガング・グロゾ
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
<1%
その他
3%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上 87.8%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％ 12.3%
その他 2.9%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+ <1%
$293,131 Vol.
$293,131 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+
$8,336 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 10-15%
$10,022 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 5-10％
$6,707 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ <5％
$11,227 Vol.
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ 5％以上
$6,911 Vol.
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ <5％
$6,047 Vol.
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上
$81,412 Vol.
88%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％
$109,815 Vol.
12%
ホルヘ・ニエト
$6,335 Vol.
<1%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
$10,618 Vol.
<1%
ヴォルフガング・グロゾ
$4,420 Vol.
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
$5,810 Vol.
<1%
その他
$25,730 Vol.
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from the April 12-13 Peruvian presidential first-round election, including Ipsos at 16.6% and Datum at 16.5% for Keiko Fujimori, position her well ahead of rivals like Rafael López Aliaga (12.8%), Jorge Nieto (11.6%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (around 12%), implying a margin exceeding 5% over the runner-up in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates. Logistical delays extended voting into April 13 and slowed official tallies by the National Jury of Elections, but these early results from 95%+ quick counts confirm her lead, driving trader consensus to 87% on Fujimori's 5%+ victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7. Pre-election Ipsos simulacros in early April reinforced her polling dominance amid voter fatigue with instability. Final certification could adjust probabilities if rural or absentee ballots shift the gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
音量
$293,131終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from the April 12-13 Peruvian presidential first-round election, including Ipsos at 16.6% and Datum at 16.5% for Keiko Fujimori, position her well ahead of rivals like Rafael López Aliaga (12.8%), Jorge Nieto (11.6%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (around 12%), implying a margin exceeding 5% over the runner-up in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates. Logistical delays extended voting into April 13 and slowed official tallies by the National Jury of Elections, but these early results from 95%+ quick counts confirm her lead, driving trader consensus to 87% on Fujimori's 5%+ victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7. Pre-election Ipsos simulacros in early April reinforced her polling dominance amid voter fatigue with instability. Final certification could adjust probabilities if rural or absentee ballots shift the gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$293,131終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Exit polls and quick counts from the April 12-13 Peruvian presidential first-round election, including Ipsos at 16.6% and Datum at 16.5% for Keiko Fujimori, position her well ahead of rivals like Rafael López Aliaga (12.8%), Jorge Nieto (11.6%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (around 12%), implying a margin exceeding 5% over the runner-up in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates. Logistical delays extended voting into April 13 and slowed official tallies by the National Jury of Elections, but these early results from 95%+ quick counts confirm her lead, driving trader consensus to 87% on Fujimori's 5%+ victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7. Pre-election Ipsos simulacros in early April reinforced her polling dominance amid voter fatigue with instability. Final certification could adjust probabilities if rural or absentee ballots shift the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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