With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上 82.2%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％ 13.9%
その他 2.9%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+ <1%
$299,846 Vol.
$299,846 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 10-15%
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 5-10％
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ <5％
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ 5％以上
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ <5％
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上
82%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％
14%
ホルヘ・ニエト
<1%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
<1%
ヴォルフガング・グロゾ
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
<1%
その他
3%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上 82.2%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％ 13.9%
その他 2.9%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+ <1%
$299,846 Vol.
$299,846 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 15%+
$8,336 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 10-15%
$10,022 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 5-10％
$6,707 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ <5％
$11,227 Vol.
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ 5％以上
$6,911 Vol.
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ <5％
$6,047 Vol.
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ 5％以上
$85,286 Vol.
82%
ケイコ・フジモリ <5％
$114,367 Vol.
14%
ホルヘ・ニエト
$6,335 Vol.
<1%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
$10,618 Vol.
<1%
ヴォルフガング・グロゾ
$4,420 Vol.
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
$5,810 Vol.
<1%
その他
$25,818 Vol.
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
音量
$299,846終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$299,846終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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