Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日70～75％ 81.2%
75～80％ 16%
80〜85％ 2.4%
85％超 1.2%
$130,141 Vol.
$130,141 Vol.
2026/04/12
70％未満
1%
70～75％
81%
75～80％
16%
80〜85％
2%
85％超
1%
70～75％ 81.2%
75～80％ 16%
80〜85％ 2.4%
85％超 1.2%
$130,141 Vol.
$130,141 Vol.
2026/04/12
70％未満
$19,098 Vol.
1%
70～75％
$35,703 Vol.
81%
75～80％
$20,267 Vol.
16%
80〜85％
$47,043 Vol.
2%
85％超
$8,030 Vol.
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
音量
$130,141終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
音量
$130,141終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's first-round presidential election turnout favors the 70-75% range at 77.5¢ implied probability, reflecting historical precedents like the 2021 first-round turnout of 70.05% and compulsory voting for ages 18-70 that sustains participation despite widespread voter disillusionment from a decade of instability—including multiple presidential impeachments, protests, and rising crime rates. Logistical chaos on April 12-13, with ballot delivery failures affecting thousands of stations prompting a voting extension to April 13 and police intervention at ONPE headquarters, introduced uncertainty but preliminary acta tallies from over 91% of protocols align with this band. Fraud allegations from candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and slow certification by the National Jury of Elections precede the June 7 runoff, yet structural factors position lower outcomes as longshots.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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