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US bank failure by April 30?

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エコノミー·ビジネス

US bank failure by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole FDIC-reported failure YTD, with minimal $19.7 million cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund and no contagion evident. Strong capital buffers from recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios, steady deposit growth, and neutral outlooks from Fitch and Moody's underpin stability amid contained commercial real estate pressures. Absent fresh insolvency signals in Q1 earnings or March economic data, traders view tail risks as low, though April nonfarm payrolls and Fed communications could sway sentiment.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole FDIC-reported failure YTD, with minimal $19.7 million cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund and no contagion evident. Strong capital buffers from recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios, steady deposit growth, and neutral outlooks from Fitch and Moody's underpin stability amid contained commercial real estate pressures. Absent fresh insolvency signals in Q1 earnings or March economic data, traders view tail risks as low, though April nonfarm payrolls and Fed communications could sway sentiment.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole FDIC-reported failure YTD, with minimal $19.7 million cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund and no contagion evident. Strong capital buffers from recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios, steady deposit growth, and neutral outlooks from Fitch and Moody's underpin stability amid contained commercial real estate pressures. Absent fresh insolvency signals in Q1 earnings or March economic data, traders view tail risks as low, though April nonfarm payrolls and Fed communications could sway sentiment.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's resilience following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole FDIC-reported failure YTD, with minimal $19.7 million cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund and no contagion evident. Strong capital buffers from recent Federal Reserve stress test scenarios, steady deposit growth, and neutral outlooks from Fitch and Moody's underpin stability amid contained commercial real estate pressures. Absent fresh insolvency signals in Q1 earnings or March economic data, traders view tail risks as low, though April nonfarm payrolls and Fed communications could sway sentiment.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「US bank failure by April 30?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して21%です。例えば、「はい」が21¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を21%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「US bank failure by April 30?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 24, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「US bank failure by April 30?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「US bank failure by April 30?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して21%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を21%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「US bank failure by April 30?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。