**Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" on draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to amend the Military Selective Service Act and enable induction.** The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and restoring conscription requires explicit statutory authorization plus appropriations, which has not occurred. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes using federal databases effective December 2026; it does not authorize conscription or alter induction procedures. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is active or imminent, and recent planning exercises remain contingency-focused rather than operational. With the calendar now in mid-August 2026 and no active bills advancing, the probability of passage and enactment before December 31 remains low absent a sudden national emergency. Realistic shifts could stem from rapid escalation in major conflicts—such as direct U.S. involvement in a Taiwan contingency or other large-scale threats—prompting Congress to act under emergency authority before year-end. Such developments would need to overcome entrenched political and public resistance to conscription.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$520,813 Vol.
$520,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$520,813 Vol.
$520,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" on draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to amend the Military Selective Service Act and enable induction.** The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and restoring conscription requires explicit statutory authorization plus appropriations, which has not occurred. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes using federal databases effective December 2026; it does not authorize conscription or alter induction procedures. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is active or imminent, and recent planning exercises remain contingency-focused rather than operational.
With the calendar now in mid-August 2026 and no active bills advancing, the probability of passage and enactment before December 31 remains low absent a sudden national emergency. Realistic shifts could stem from rapid escalation in major conflicts—such as direct U.S. involvement in a Taiwan contingency or other large-scale threats—prompting Congress to act under emergency authority before year-end. Such developments would need to overcome entrenched political and public resistance to conscription.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$520,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" on draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to amend the Military Selective Service Act and enable induction.** The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and restoring conscription requires explicit statutory authorization plus appropriations, which has not occurred. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes using federal databases effective December 2026; it does not authorize conscription or alter induction procedures. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is active or imminent, and recent planning exercises remain contingency-focused rather than operational.
With the calendar now in mid-August 2026 and no active bills advancing, the probability of passage and enactment before December 31 remains low absent a sudden national emergency. Realistic shifts could stem from rapid escalation in major conflicts—such as direct U.S. involvement in a Taiwan contingency or other large-scale threats—prompting Congress to act under emergency authority before year-end. Such developments would need to overcome entrenched political and public resistance to conscription.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$520,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" on draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to amend the Military Selective Service Act and enable induction.** The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and restoring conscription requires explicit statutory authorization plus appropriations, which has not occurred. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes using federal databases effective December 2026; it does not authorize conscription or alter induction procedures. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is active or imminent, and recent planning exercises remain contingency-focused rather than operational. With the calendar now in mid-August 2026 and no active bills advancing, the probability of passage and enactment before December 31 remains low absent a sudden national emergency. Realistic shifts could stem from rapid escalation in major conflicts—such as direct U.S. involvement in a Taiwan contingency or other large-scale threats—prompting Congress to act under emergency authority before year-end. Such developments would need to overcome entrenched political and public resistance to conscription.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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