John McGuire’s incumbency in a Republican-leaning district that delivered him a 15-point victory in 2024 underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election. He secured his party nomination with 84% in the August 4 primary, reflecting consolidated GOP support after his narrow 2024 primary win over Bob Good. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former holder of the seat from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively and holds a fundraising edge with over $1.5 million cash on hand, yet faces structural headwinds in the rural Southside and Piedmont areas. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican, and a late-summer poll showed a tight 47-44 margin. The September 9 candidate forum, which McGuire skipped, highlights ongoing contrasts in visibility but has not altered the district’s baseline partisan tilt ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$66,107 Vol.
$66,107 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・マグワイア（共和党）
85%
トム・ペリオロ（民主党）
14%
$66,107 Vol.
$66,107 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・マグワイア（共和党）
$32,601 Vol.
85%
トム・ペリオロ（民主党）
$33,506 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire’s incumbency in a Republican-leaning district that delivered him a 15-point victory in 2024 underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election. He secured his party nomination with 84% in the August 4 primary, reflecting consolidated GOP support after his narrow 2024 primary win over Bob Good. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former holder of the seat from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively and holds a fundraising edge with over $1.5 million cash on hand, yet faces structural headwinds in the rural Southside and Piedmont areas. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican, and a late-summer poll showed a tight 47-44 margin. The September 9 candidate forum, which McGuire skipped, highlights ongoing contrasts in visibility but has not altered the district’s baseline partisan tilt ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$66,107終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire’s incumbency in a Republican-leaning district that delivered him a 15-point victory in 2024 underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election. He secured his party nomination with 84% in the August 4 primary, reflecting consolidated GOP support after his narrow 2024 primary win over Bob Good. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former holder of the seat from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively and holds a fundraising edge with over $1.5 million cash on hand, yet faces structural headwinds in the rural Southside and Piedmont areas. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican, and a late-summer poll showed a tight 47-44 margin. The September 9 candidate forum, which McGuire skipped, highlights ongoing contrasts in visibility but has not altered the district’s baseline partisan tilt ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$66,107終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...John McGuire’s incumbency in a Republican-leaning district that delivered him a 15-point victory in 2024 underpins trader consensus favoring his re-election. He secured his party nomination with 84% in the August 4 primary, reflecting consolidated GOP support after his narrow 2024 primary win over Bob Good. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former holder of the seat from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively and holds a fundraising edge with over $1.5 million cash on hand, yet faces structural headwinds in the rural Southside and Piedmont areas. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican, and a late-summer poll showed a tight 47-44 margin. The September 9 candidate forum, which McGuire skipped, highlights ongoing contrasts in visibility but has not altered the district’s baseline partisan tilt ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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