Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to “No” because diffusion large language models remain behind frontier autoregressive systems on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of September 2026. Leading dLLMs such as Mercury 2, DiffusionGemma, and LLaDA deliver strong inference throughput through parallel denoising but trail established transformer-based models from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI on aggregate ELO and capability benchmarks. With only four months until the December 31, 2026 resolution, rapid scaling of existing autoregressive architectures continues to outpace dLLM maturation. A credible late-year release from a major lab that demonstrably tops the leaderboard could still shift the outcome, though current performance gaps and training dynamics make such a reversal improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to “No” because diffusion large language models remain behind frontier autoregressive systems on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of September 2026. Leading dLLMs such as Mercury 2, DiffusionGemma, and LLaDA deliver strong inference throughput through parallel denoising but trail established transformer-based models from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI on aggregate ELO and capability benchmarks. With only four months until the December 31, 2026 resolution, rapid scaling of existing autoregressive architectures continues to outpace dLLM maturation. A credible late-year release from a major lab that demonstrably tops the leaderboard could still shift the outcome, though current performance gaps and training dynamics make such a reversal improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.
マーケット開始日： Nov 14, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
音量
$3,269終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 14, 2025, 3:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to “No” because diffusion large language models remain behind frontier autoregressive systems on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of September 2026. Leading dLLMs such as Mercury 2, DiffusionGemma, and LLaDA deliver strong inference throughput through parallel denoising but trail established transformer-based models from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI on aggregate ELO and capability benchmarks. With only four months until the December 31, 2026 resolution, rapid scaling of existing autoregressive architectures continues to outpace dLLM maturation. A credible late-year release from a major lab that demonstrably tops the leaderboard could still shift the outcome, though current performance gaps and training dynamics make such a reversal improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.
A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.
Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.
音量
$3,269終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 14, 2025, 3:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to “No” because diffusion large language models remain behind frontier autoregressive systems on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of September 2026. Leading dLLMs such as Mercury 2, DiffusionGemma, and LLaDA deliver strong inference throughput through parallel denoising but trail established transformer-based models from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI on aggregate ELO and capability benchmarks. With only four months until the December 31, 2026 resolution, rapid scaling of existing autoregressive architectures continues to outpace dLLM maturation. A credible late-year release from a major lab that demonstrably tops the leaderboard could still shift the outcome, though current performance gaps and training dynamics make such a reversal improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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