Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a polling edge in the Arizona gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing her ahead of leading Republican primary contender Rep. Andy Biggs by 5 points (42%-37%, Noble Predictive Insights, late February 2026) and larger margins over Rep. David Schweikert, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% for a Democratic win despite the battleground state's competitiveness. Biggs solidified his primary lead at 52% in a NextGen poll (April 13-16, likely voters), but his polarizing profile limits general election appeal amid Hobbs' incumbency advantage and Arizona's narrow Democratic statewide victories in recent cycles. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted to Lean Democrat, though odds exceed polling-implied probabilities around 55%; the July 21 primary could clarify the matchup before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$40,618 거래량
$40,618 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
78%
공화당
22%
$40,618 거래량
$40,618 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$21,510 거래량
78%
공화당
$19,108 거래량
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a polling edge in the Arizona gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing her ahead of leading Republican primary contender Rep. Andy Biggs by 5 points (42%-37%, Noble Predictive Insights, late February 2026) and larger margins over Rep. David Schweikert, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% for a Democratic win despite the battleground state's competitiveness. Biggs solidified his primary lead at 52% in a NextGen poll (April 13-16, likely voters), but his polarizing profile limits general election appeal amid Hobbs' incumbency advantage and Arizona's narrow Democratic statewide victories in recent cycles. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted to Lean Democrat, though odds exceed polling-implied probabilities around 55%; the July 21 primary could clarify the matchup before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
거래량
$40,618종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a polling edge in the Arizona gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing her ahead of leading Republican primary contender Rep. Andy Biggs by 5 points (42%-37%, Noble Predictive Insights, late February 2026) and larger margins over Rep. David Schweikert, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% for a Democratic win despite the battleground state's competitiveness. Biggs solidified his primary lead at 52% in a NextGen poll (April 13-16, likely voters), but his polarizing profile limits general election appeal amid Hobbs' incumbency advantage and Arizona's narrow Democratic statewide victories in recent cycles. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted to Lean Democrat, though odds exceed polling-implied probabilities around 55%; the July 21 primary could clarify the matchup before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$40,618종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a polling edge in the Arizona gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing her ahead of leading Republican primary contender Rep. Andy Biggs by 5 points (42%-37%, Noble Predictive Insights, late February 2026) and larger margins over Rep. David Schweikert, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% for a Democratic win despite the battleground state's competitiveness. Biggs solidified his primary lead at 52% in a NextGen poll (April 13-16, likely voters), but his polarizing profile limits general election appeal amid Hobbs' incumbency advantage and Arizona's narrow Democratic statewide victories in recent cycles. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted to Lean Democrat, though odds exceed polling-implied probabilities around 55%; the July 21 primary could clarify the matchup before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문