The newly redrawn California 6th District, shifted Democratic-leaning through Proposition 50 redistricting and rated Solid D by the Cook Political Report, favors a Democratic general election outcome on November 3. Incumbent Ami Bera relocated to another seat, leaving an open race where multiple Democratic candidates split the primary vote. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who switched to no party preference, led early June 2 top-two primary returns ahead of a Republican and several Democrats, but the district's voter registration and partisan voting index point to a Democratic nominee prevailing in November regardless of the second-place finisher. Trader consensus at 83.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge, while the 9% Republican share aligns with limited paths for an independent or GOP candidate to overcome the lean in the general.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,190 거래량
$23,190 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
84%
Republican Party
9%
$23,190 거래량
$23,190 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$8,999 거래량
84%
Republican Party
$14,191 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The newly redrawn California 6th District, shifted Democratic-leaning through Proposition 50 redistricting and rated Solid D by the Cook Political Report, favors a Democratic general election outcome on November 3. Incumbent Ami Bera relocated to another seat, leaving an open race where multiple Democratic candidates split the primary vote. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who switched to no party preference, led early June 2 top-two primary returns ahead of a Republican and several Democrats, but the district's voter registration and partisan voting index point to a Democratic nominee prevailing in November regardless of the second-place finisher. Trader consensus at 83.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge, while the 9% Republican share aligns with limited paths for an independent or GOP candidate to overcome the lean in the general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$23,190종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The newly redrawn California 6th District, shifted Democratic-leaning through Proposition 50 redistricting and rated Solid D by the Cook Political Report, favors a Democratic general election outcome on November 3. Incumbent Ami Bera relocated to another seat, leaving an open race where multiple Democratic candidates split the primary vote. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who switched to no party preference, led early June 2 top-two primary returns ahead of a Republican and several Democrats, but the district's voter registration and partisan voting index point to a Democratic nominee prevailing in November regardless of the second-place finisher. Trader consensus at 83.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge, while the 9% Republican share aligns with limited paths for an independent or GOP candidate to overcome the lean in the general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,190종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The newly redrawn California 6th District, shifted Democratic-leaning through Proposition 50 redistricting and rated Solid D by the Cook Political Report, favors a Democratic general election outcome on November 3. Incumbent Ami Bera relocated to another seat, leaving an open race where multiple Democratic candidates split the primary vote. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who switched to no party preference, led early June 2 top-two primary returns ahead of a Republican and several Democrats, but the district's voter registration and partisan voting index point to a Democratic nominee prevailing in November regardless of the second-place finisher. Trader consensus at 83.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge, while the 9% Republican share aligns with limited paths for an independent or GOP candidate to overcome the lean in the general.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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