Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District drives the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic House winner, bolstered by the district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 65.4% in 2024—and his landslide victories, including 74% over Republican Rudy Recile in 2024. Garamendi holds a massive fundraising edge with $1.26 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden, plus Recile in the June 2 top-two primary. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, the race faces minimal GOP threat. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, Garamendi's health concerns at age 81, or a massive Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,941 거래량
$11,941 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$11,941 거래량
$11,941 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$5,673 거래량
93%
공화당
$6,269 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District drives the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic House winner, bolstered by the district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 65.4% in 2024—and his landslide victories, including 74% over Republican Rudy Recile in 2024. Garamendi holds a massive fundraising edge with $1.26 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden, plus Recile in the June 2 top-two primary. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, the race faces minimal GOP threat. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, Garamendi's health concerns at age 81, or a massive Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$11,941종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District drives the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic House winner, bolstered by the district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 65.4% in 2024—and his landslide victories, including 74% over Republican Rudy Recile in 2024. Garamendi holds a massive fundraising edge with $1.26 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden, plus Recile in the June 2 top-two primary. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, the race faces minimal GOP threat. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, Garamendi's health concerns at age 81, or a massive Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,941종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District drives the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic House winner, bolstered by the district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 65.4% in 2024—and his landslide victories, including 74% over Republican Rudy Recile in 2024. Garamendi holds a massive fundraising edge with $1.26 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden, plus Recile in the June 2 top-two primary. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, the race faces minimal GOP threat. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, Garamendi's health concerns at age 81, or a massive Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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