Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times from April 10 to 17, 2026, at 43.5% implied probability, driven by his observed 267 posts through the first six days at a 45-per-day clip, per XTracker data synced early April 16. This positions 280-299 (25.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%) as close contenders, reflecting a slight slowdown from an initial 57-daily average after three days amid Tesla's AI5 chip tape-out announcement and SpaceX infrastructure buzz fueling steady engagement. With 86% of the period elapsed and one final day remaining, any last-minute surge in replies, shares, or viral moments on X could tip the total higher, underscoring the platform's real-time volatility in celebrity posting trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트300~319 44%
280~299 25.8%
320-339 20.8%
340~359 6.3%
$9,728,391 거래량
$9,728,391 거래량
2026.04.17
240~259
<1%
260~279
2%
280~299
26%
300~319
44%
320-339
21%
340~359
6%
360-379
2%
380-399
1%
400~419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480~499
<1%
500~519
<1%
520~539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560~579
<1%
580+
<1%
300~319 44%
280~299 25.8%
320-339 20.8%
340~359 6.3%
$9,728,391 거래량
$9,728,391 거래량
2026.04.17
240~259
$825,540 거래량
<1%
260~279
$544,804 거래량
2%
280~299
$420,959 거래량
26%
300~319
$338,543 거래량
44%
320-339
$436,654 거래량
21%
340~359
$345,099 거래량
6%
360-379
$360,905 거래량
2%
380-399
$310,546 거래량
1%
400~419
$295,620 거래량
<1%
420-439
$423,189 거래량
<1%
440-459
$483,526 거래량
<1%
460-479
$342,850 거래량
<1%
480~499
$329,750 거래량
<1%
500~519
$264,248 거래량
<1%
520~539
$266,477 거래량
<1%
540-559
$265,374 거래량
<1%
560~579
$183,742 거래량
<1%
580+
$349,007 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times from April 10 to 17, 2026, at 43.5% implied probability, driven by his observed 267 posts through the first six days at a 45-per-day clip, per XTracker data synced early April 16. This positions 280-299 (25.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%) as close contenders, reflecting a slight slowdown from an initial 57-daily average after three days amid Tesla's AI5 chip tape-out announcement and SpaceX infrastructure buzz fueling steady engagement. With 86% of the period elapsed and one final day remaining, any last-minute surge in replies, shares, or viral moments on X could tip the total higher, underscoring the platform's real-time volatility in celebrity posting trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
거래량
$9,728,391종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times from April 10 to 17, 2026, at 43.5% implied probability, driven by his observed 267 posts through the first six days at a 45-per-day clip, per XTracker data synced early April 16. This positions 280-299 (25.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%) as close contenders, reflecting a slight slowdown from an initial 57-daily average after three days amid Tesla's AI5 chip tape-out announcement and SpaceX infrastructure buzz fueling steady engagement. With 86% of the period elapsed and one final day remaining, any last-minute surge in replies, shares, or viral moments on X could tip the total higher, underscoring the platform's real-time volatility in celebrity posting trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$9,728,391종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times from April 10 to 17, 2026, at 43.5% implied probability, driven by his observed 267 posts through the first six days at a 45-per-day clip, per XTracker data synced early April 16. This positions 280-299 (25.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%) as close contenders, reflecting a slight slowdown from an initial 57-daily average after three days amid Tesla's AI5 chip tape-out announcement and SpaceX infrastructure buzz fueling steady engagement. With 86% of the period elapsed and one final day remaining, any last-minute surge in replies, shares, or viral moments on X could tip the total higher, underscoring the platform's real-time volatility in celebrity posting trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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