Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times from April 16 to 18, reflecting his recent daily average of 25-40 posts drawn from resolved markets like April 7-14's 299 total (~43 per day) and the ongoing April 10-17 tracker at 247 through six days (41/day pace as of early April 16). The 27.5% on 40-64 underscores a tight race amid steady engagement on viral topics such as South African empowerment policies, Tesla AI chip tapeouts, and Semi trucking visuals, without major spikes in the past 48 hours. Lower brackets trail due to historical precedents avoiding sub-20 daily norms, though unpredictability looms from potential SpaceX announcements or X platform updates before the April 18 close.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트65-89 40%
40~64 28%
90-114 19%
115~139 10%
$165,008 거래량
$165,008 거래량
2026.04.18
40개 미만
4%
40~64
28%
65-89
40%
90-114
19%
115~139
10%
140~164
3%
165~189
1%
190-214
<1%
215~239
<1%
240개 이상
<1%
65-89 40%
40~64 28%
90-114 19%
115~139 10%
$165,008 거래량
$165,008 거래량
2026.04.18
40개 미만
$31,305 거래량
4%
40~64
$10,880 거래량
28%
65-89
$5,480 거래량
40%
90-114
$7,395 거래량
19%
115~139
$9,843 거래량
10%
140~164
$10,639 거래량
3%
165~189
$19,143 거래량
1%
190-214
$24,615 거래량
<1%
215~239
$12,460 거래량
<1%
240개 이상
$33,333 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times from April 16 to 18, reflecting his recent daily average of 25-40 posts drawn from resolved markets like April 7-14's 299 total (~43 per day) and the ongoing April 10-17 tracker at 247 through six days (41/day pace as of early April 16). The 27.5% on 40-64 underscores a tight race amid steady engagement on viral topics such as South African empowerment policies, Tesla AI chip tapeouts, and Semi trucking visuals, without major spikes in the past 48 hours. Lower brackets trail due to historical precedents avoiding sub-20 daily norms, though unpredictability looms from potential SpaceX announcements or X platform updates before the April 18 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
거래량
$165,008종료일
2026.04.18마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times from April 16 to 18, reflecting his recent daily average of 25-40 posts drawn from resolved markets like April 7-14's 299 total (~43 per day) and the ongoing April 10-17 tracker at 247 through six days (41/day pace as of early April 16). The 27.5% on 40-64 underscores a tight race amid steady engagement on viral topics such as South African empowerment policies, Tesla AI chip tapeouts, and Semi trucking visuals, without major spikes in the past 48 hours. Lower brackets trail due to historical precedents avoiding sub-20 daily norms, though unpredictability looms from potential SpaceX announcements or X platform updates before the April 18 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$165,008종료일
2026.04.18마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times from April 16 to 18, reflecting his recent daily average of 25-40 posts drawn from resolved markets like April 7-14's 299 total (~43 per day) and the ongoing April 10-17 tracker at 247 through six days (41/day pace as of early April 16). The 27.5% on 40-64 underscores a tight race amid steady engagement on viral topics such as South African empowerment policies, Tesla AI chip tapeouts, and Semi trucking visuals, without major spikes in the past 48 hours. Lower brackets trail due to historical precedents avoiding sub-20 daily norms, though unpredictability looms from potential SpaceX announcements or X platform updates before the April 18 close.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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