Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
예
$161,832 거래량
$161,832 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$161,832 거래량
$161,832 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
거래량
$161,832종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$161,832종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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