Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts reporting, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 52.1% of the party-list popular vote versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, yielding a 12.5% margin of victory that aligns precisely with the dominant 94.1% trader consensus on the 12-15% strike. Record 79.6% turnout—highest since 1990—reflected widespread anti-corruption backlash against incumbent Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, propelling ex-Fidesz insider Magyar's pro-EU challenger platform and unified opposition support. Independent pollsters like Medián, with strong historical accuracy, forecasted similar 12-18% leads in final surveys. Barring rare recount disputes or certification challenges, late adjustments are unlikely to shift the margin below 12%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트티서 12-15% 94.1%
티서 15-18% 4.5%
티서 9-12% 1.9%
티서 18%+ <1%
$757,355 거래량
$757,355 거래량
2026.04.12
티서 18%+
<1%
티서 15-18%
5%
티서 12-15%
94%
티서 9-12%
2%
티서 <9%
<1%
기타
<1%
티서 12-15% 94.1%
티서 15-18% 4.5%
티서 9-12% 1.9%
티서 18%+ <1%
$757,355 거래량
$757,355 거래량
2026.04.12
티서 18%+
$156,340 거래량
<1%
티서 15-18%
$196,830 거래량
5%
티서 12-15%
$230,180 거래량
94%
티서 9-12%
$104,742 거래량
2%
티서 <9%
$42,370 거래량
<1%
기타
$26,892 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts reporting, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 52.1% of the party-list popular vote versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, yielding a 12.5% margin of victory that aligns precisely with the dominant 94.1% trader consensus on the 12-15% strike. Record 79.6% turnout—highest since 1990—reflected widespread anti-corruption backlash against incumbent Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, propelling ex-Fidesz insider Magyar's pro-EU challenger platform and unified opposition support. Independent pollsters like Medián, with strong historical accuracy, forecasted similar 12-18% leads in final surveys. Barring rare recount disputes or certification challenges, late adjustments are unlikely to shift the margin below 12%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
거래량
$757,355종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts reporting, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 52.1% of the party-list popular vote versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, yielding a 12.5% margin of victory that aligns precisely with the dominant 94.1% trader consensus on the 12-15% strike. Record 79.6% turnout—highest since 1990—reflected widespread anti-corruption backlash against incumbent Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, propelling ex-Fidesz insider Magyar's pro-EU challenger platform and unified opposition support. Independent pollsters like Medián, with strong historical accuracy, forecasted similar 12-18% leads in final surveys. Barring rare recount disputes or certification challenges, late adjustments are unlikely to shift the margin below 12%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
거래량
$757,355종료일
2026.04.12마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts reporting, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 52.1% of the party-list popular vote versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, yielding a 12.5% margin of victory that aligns precisely with the dominant 94.1% trader consensus on the 12-15% strike. Record 79.6% turnout—highest since 1990—reflected widespread anti-corruption backlash against incumbent Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, propelling ex-Fidesz insider Magyar's pro-EU challenger platform and unified opposition support. Independent pollsters like Medián, with strong historical accuracy, forecasted similar 12-18% leads in final surveys. Barring rare recount disputes or certification challenges, late adjustments are unlikely to shift the margin below 12%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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