Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by Cook Political Report's January shift from Lean Republican to Toss-Up after GOP Rep. Zach Nunn's narrow four-point 2024 reelection aligned with Trump's district margin. Recent polls, including a November Change Research survey showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, bolster Dem prospects amid candidate consolidation—Rep. Jennifer Konfrst exited the primary in January endorsing Trone Garriott—and DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting of Trone Garriott and Christina Bohannan. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats, strong fundraising exceeding $1 million per top contender, and the Des Moines metro's battleground dynamics heighten competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries, though Iowa GOP registration gains pose counter-risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
67%
Republican Party
31%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$420 거래량
67%
Republican Party
$82 거래량
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by Cook Political Report's January shift from Lean Republican to Toss-Up after GOP Rep. Zach Nunn's narrow four-point 2024 reelection aligned with Trump's district margin. Recent polls, including a November Change Research survey showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, bolster Dem prospects amid candidate consolidation—Rep. Jennifer Konfrst exited the primary in January endorsing Trone Garriott—and DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting of Trone Garriott and Christina Bohannan. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats, strong fundraising exceeding $1 million per top contender, and the Des Moines metro's battleground dynamics heighten competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries, though Iowa GOP registration gains pose counter-risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
거래량
$502종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by Cook Political Report's January shift from Lean Republican to Toss-Up after GOP Rep. Zach Nunn's narrow four-point 2024 reelection aligned with Trump's district margin. Recent polls, including a November Change Research survey showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, bolster Dem prospects amid candidate consolidation—Rep. Jennifer Konfrst exited the primary in January endorsing Trone Garriott—and DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting of Trone Garriott and Christina Bohannan. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats, strong fundraising exceeding $1 million per top contender, and the Des Moines metro's battleground dynamics heighten competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries, though Iowa GOP registration gains pose counter-risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$502종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by Cook Political Report's January shift from Lean Republican to Toss-Up after GOP Rep. Zach Nunn's narrow four-point 2024 reelection aligned with Trump's district margin. Recent polls, including a November Change Research survey showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%-40%, bolster Dem prospects amid candidate consolidation—Rep. Jennifer Konfrst exited the primary in January endorsing Trone Garriott—and DCCC "Red to Blue" targeting of Trone Garriott and Christina Bohannan. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats, strong fundraising exceeding $1 million per top contender, and the Des Moines metro's battleground dynamics heighten competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries, though Iowa GOP registration gains pose counter-risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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