The IA-03 race features incumbent Republican Zach Nunn against Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott following their June 2 primaries, with both advancing unopposed or by wide margins in this Des Moines-area district rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee at 77% reflects the seat's narrow 2024 margin under 4 points, a recent internal poll showing Trone Garriott ahead by double digits, and competitive fundraising that has seen Democrats outpace or match Republican efforts. A Libertarian candidate's late entry adds minor vote-splitting potential but has not shifted positioning. National midterm dynamics and the district's suburban swing character continue to underpin the current implied probability favoring the Democratic candidate in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
20%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$1,234 거래량
74%
Republican Party
$1,020 거래량
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IA-03 race features incumbent Republican Zach Nunn against Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott following their June 2 primaries, with both advancing unopposed or by wide margins in this Des Moines-area district rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee at 77% reflects the seat's narrow 2024 margin under 4 points, a recent internal poll showing Trone Garriott ahead by double digits, and competitive fundraising that has seen Democrats outpace or match Republican efforts. A Libertarian candidate's late entry adds minor vote-splitting potential but has not shifted positioning. National midterm dynamics and the district's suburban swing character continue to underpin the current implied probability favoring the Democratic candidate in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
거래량
$2,254종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IA-03 race features incumbent Republican Zach Nunn against Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott following their June 2 primaries, with both advancing unopposed or by wide margins in this Des Moines-area district rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee at 77% reflects the seat's narrow 2024 margin under 4 points, a recent internal poll showing Trone Garriott ahead by double digits, and competitive fundraising that has seen Democrats outpace or match Republican efforts. A Libertarian candidate's late entry adds minor vote-splitting potential but has not shifted positioning. National midterm dynamics and the district's suburban swing character continue to underpin the current implied probability favoring the Democratic candidate in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,254종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The IA-03 race features incumbent Republican Zach Nunn against Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott following their June 2 primaries, with both advancing unopposed or by wide margins in this Des Moines-area district rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee at 77% reflects the seat's narrow 2024 margin under 4 points, a recent internal poll showing Trone Garriott ahead by double digits, and competitive fundraising that has seen Democrats outpace or match Republican efforts. A Libertarian candidate's late entry adds minor vote-splitting potential but has not shifted positioning. National midterm dynamics and the district's suburban swing character continue to underpin the current implied probability favoring the Democratic candidate in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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