Melissa Bean's commanding win in the March 17 Democratic primary for the open IL-08 seat—vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi for an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid—has entrenched trader consensus at 89.5% for a Democratic House victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean in Chicago's northern suburbs. Bean's prior tenure representing IL-08 from 2005-2011, strong pre-primary fundraising exceeding $1 million, and name recognition contrast with Republican nominee Jennifer Davis's lower profile following her primary advance. Absent post-primary shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, odds remain stable ahead of the November 3 general election in this reliably blue district rated Solid D by forecasters.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,046 거래량
90%
Republican Party
$2,421 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean's commanding win in the March 17 Democratic primary for the open IL-08 seat—vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi for an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid—has entrenched trader consensus at 89.5% for a Democratic House victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean in Chicago's northern suburbs. Bean's prior tenure representing IL-08 from 2005-2011, strong pre-primary fundraising exceeding $1 million, and name recognition contrast with Republican nominee Jennifer Davis's lower profile following her primary advance. Absent post-primary shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, odds remain stable ahead of the November 3 general election in this reliably blue district rated Solid D by forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$4,467종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean's commanding win in the March 17 Democratic primary for the open IL-08 seat—vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi for an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid—has entrenched trader consensus at 89.5% for a Democratic House victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean in Chicago's northern suburbs. Bean's prior tenure representing IL-08 from 2005-2011, strong pre-primary fundraising exceeding $1 million, and name recognition contrast with Republican nominee Jennifer Davis's lower profile following her primary advance. Absent post-primary shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, odds remain stable ahead of the November 3 general election in this reliably blue district rated Solid D by forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,467종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Melissa Bean's commanding win in the March 17 Democratic primary for the open IL-08 seat—vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi for an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid—has entrenched trader consensus at 89.5% for a Democratic House victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean in Chicago's northern suburbs. Bean's prior tenure representing IL-08 from 2005-2011, strong pre-primary fundraising exceeding $1 million, and name recognition contrast with Republican nominee Jennifer Davis's lower profile following her primary advance. Absent post-primary shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, odds remain stable ahead of the November 3 general election in this reliably blue district rated Solid D by forecasters.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문