Andy Burnham leads the Makerfield by-election market at 57.5% following the National Executive Committee’s approval for his Labour nomination on May 15, after incumbent Josh Simons stepped down to create the vacancy. This development highlights Burnham’s established profile as Greater Manchester mayor and Labour’s traditional strength in the constituency, where the party previously held a majority of just over 5,000 votes. Robert Kenyon of Reform UK sits at 36.5%, buoyed by the party’s strong local election results in the area, which signal competitive pressure in this northern seat. The June 18 polling date and Burnham’s potential path to a leadership challenge add focus to the contest, while minor candidates remain below 2% amid limited visibility.