The high-profile May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District featured incumbent Thomas Massie facing challenger Ed Gallrein, who received an endorsement from President Trump and benefited from record outside spending exceeding $30 million. This contest drove significantly elevated participation compared with the 2024 primary, producing roughly 105,000 total Republican votes—more than double the prior cycle’s figure for the district. Statewide primary turnout also rose notably versus 2022, reflecting broader mobilization in a closed primary system amid intense advertising and national attention. With nearly all ballots reported and certified totals falling squarely inside the 100-110k band, trader consensus reflects the observed vote volume and limited remaining uncertainty. Late adjustments to final canvassing or provisional ballot counts represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 거래량
$48,111 거래량
2026.05.19
<80k
3%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
5%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 거래량
$48,111 거래량
2026.05.19
<80k
$5,312 거래량
3%
80-90k
$4,066 거래량
1%
90-100k
$2,741 거래량
5%
100-110k
$13,472 거래량
100%
110-120k
$7,064 거래량
<1%
120k+
$15,456 거래량
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The high-profile May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District featured incumbent Thomas Massie facing challenger Ed Gallrein, who received an endorsement from President Trump and benefited from record outside spending exceeding $30 million. This contest drove significantly elevated participation compared with the 2024 primary, producing roughly 105,000 total Republican votes—more than double the prior cycle’s figure for the district. Statewide primary turnout also rose notably versus 2022, reflecting broader mobilization in a closed primary system amid intense advertising and national attention. With nearly all ballots reported and certified totals falling squarely inside the 100-110k band, trader consensus reflects the observed vote volume and limited remaining uncertainty. Late adjustments to final canvassing or provisional ballot counts represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
마켓 개설일: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
거래량
$48,111종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The high-profile May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District featured incumbent Thomas Massie facing challenger Ed Gallrein, who received an endorsement from President Trump and benefited from record outside spending exceeding $30 million. This contest drove significantly elevated participation compared with the 2024 primary, producing roughly 105,000 total Republican votes—more than double the prior cycle’s figure for the district. Statewide primary turnout also rose notably versus 2022, reflecting broader mobilization in a closed primary system amid intense advertising and national attention. With nearly all ballots reported and certified totals falling squarely inside the 100-110k band, trader consensus reflects the observed vote volume and limited remaining uncertainty. Late adjustments to final canvassing or provisional ballot counts represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
거래량
$48,111종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The high-profile May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District featured incumbent Thomas Massie facing challenger Ed Gallrein, who received an endorsement from President Trump and benefited from record outside spending exceeding $30 million. This contest drove significantly elevated participation compared with the 2024 primary, producing roughly 105,000 total Republican votes—more than double the prior cycle’s figure for the district. Statewide primary turnout also rose notably versus 2022, reflecting broader mobilization in a closed primary system amid intense advertising and national attention. With nearly all ballots reported and certified totals falling squarely inside the 100-110k band, trader consensus reflects the observed vote volume and limited remaining uncertainty. Late adjustments to final canvassing or provisional ballot counts represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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