Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in recent Kentucky 4th District Republican primary polls ahead of the May 19 vote, with Quantus Insights (April 9) showing Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% and Big Data Poll (April 3-7) at 52%-48%, fueling trader consensus implying 69.5% odds for Massie despite the race tightening. Massie's $2.5 million Q1 fundraising from over 20,600 donors underscores national small-government support, while Gallrein's 30.4% reflects momentum from the presidential endorsement, attack ads on Massie's party-line dissent, and strength among seniors. Prediction market odds exceed polls, highlighting incumbency edge and turnout dynamics in this contested GOP primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트토머스 매시 70%
Ed Gallrein 30.4%
니콜 리 이싱턴 <1%
로버트 웰스 주니어 <1%
$255,746 거래량
$255,746 거래량
2026.05.19
토머스 매시
70%
Ed Gallrein
30%
니콜 리 이싱턴
<1%
로버트 웰스 주니어
<1%
토머스 매시 70%
Ed Gallrein 30.4%
니콜 리 이싱턴 <1%
로버트 웰스 주니어 <1%
$255,746 거래량
$255,746 거래량
2026.05.19
토머스 매시
$180,999 거래량
70%
Ed Gallrein
$74,746 거래량
30%
니콜 리 이싱턴
$0 거래량
<1%
로버트 웰스 주니어
$0 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in recent Kentucky 4th District Republican primary polls ahead of the May 19 vote, with Quantus Insights (April 9) showing Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% and Big Data Poll (April 3-7) at 52%-48%, fueling trader consensus implying 69.5% odds for Massie despite the race tightening. Massie's $2.5 million Q1 fundraising from over 20,600 donors underscores national small-government support, while Gallrein's 30.4% reflects momentum from the presidential endorsement, attack ads on Massie's party-line dissent, and strength among seniors. Prediction market odds exceed polls, highlighting incumbency edge and turnout dynamics in this contested GOP primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
거래량
$255,746종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in recent Kentucky 4th District Republican primary polls ahead of the May 19 vote, with Quantus Insights (April 9) showing Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% and Big Data Poll (April 3-7) at 52%-48%, fueling trader consensus implying 69.5% odds for Massie despite the race tightening. Massie's $2.5 million Q1 fundraising from over 20,600 donors underscores national small-government support, while Gallrein's 30.4% reflects momentum from the presidential endorsement, attack ads on Massie's party-line dissent, and strength among seniors. Prediction market odds exceed polls, highlighting incumbency edge and turnout dynamics in this contested GOP primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$255,746종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in recent Kentucky 4th District Republican primary polls ahead of the May 19 vote, with Quantus Insights (April 9) showing Massie at 47% to Gallrein's 38% and Big Data Poll (April 3-7) at 52%-48%, fueling trader consensus implying 69.5% odds for Massie despite the race tightening. Massie's $2.5 million Q1 fundraising from over 20,600 donors underscores national small-government support, while Gallrein's 30.4% reflects momentum from the presidential endorsement, attack ads on Massie's party-line dissent, and strength among seniors. Prediction market odds exceed polls, highlighting incumbency edge and turnout dynamics in this contested GOP primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문