Incumbent Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) commands trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Michigan's 8th Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball despite its R+1 partisan voting index. Her 51.3% victory over Paul Junge (R) in 2024, bolstered by $2.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfs Republican challengers Amir Hassan and Alfred Lemmo ahead of the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Recent April actions—introducing tax cut bills for working families, pushing ethics probes, aiding Delphi retirees' health costs, and countering China trade threats—reinforce local appeal in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City amid absent 2026 polling. GOP odds at 10% reflect fundraising gaps and incumbency edge, though a national Republican midterm wave or scandal could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
10%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$505 거래량
87%
Republican Party
$133 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) commands trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Michigan's 8th Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball despite its R+1 partisan voting index. Her 51.3% victory over Paul Junge (R) in 2024, bolstered by $2.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfs Republican challengers Amir Hassan and Alfred Lemmo ahead of the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Recent April actions—introducing tax cut bills for working families, pushing ethics probes, aiding Delphi retirees' health costs, and countering China trade threats—reinforce local appeal in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City amid absent 2026 polling. GOP odds at 10% reflect fundraising gaps and incumbency edge, though a national Republican midterm wave or scandal could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$638종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) commands trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Michigan's 8th Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball despite its R+1 partisan voting index. Her 51.3% victory over Paul Junge (R) in 2024, bolstered by $2.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfs Republican challengers Amir Hassan and Alfred Lemmo ahead of the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Recent April actions—introducing tax cut bills for working families, pushing ethics probes, aiding Delphi retirees' health costs, and countering China trade threats—reinforce local appeal in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City amid absent 2026 polling. GOP odds at 10% reflect fundraising gaps and incumbency edge, though a national Republican midterm wave or scandal could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$638종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) commands trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Michigan's 8th Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball despite its R+1 partisan voting index. Her 51.3% victory over Paul Junge (R) in 2024, bolstered by $2.6 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfs Republican challengers Amir Hassan and Alfred Lemmo ahead of the April 21 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Recent April actions—introducing tax cut bills for working families, pushing ethics probes, aiding Delphi retirees' health costs, and countering China trade threats—reinforce local appeal in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City amid absent 2026 polling. GOP odds at 10% reflect fundraising gaps and incumbency edge, though a national Republican midterm wave or scandal could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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