Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트"마이클" 세컨드 위켄드 박스오피스
"마이클" 세컨드 위켄드 박스오피스
>5,500만 달러 64.3%
5천만~5천5백만 32%
4,500만~5,000만 달러 1.3%
<3,500만 달러 <1%
$62,852 거래량
$62,852 거래량
2026.05.04
<3,500만 달러
1%
3,500만~4,000만 달러
<1%
4,000만~4,500만
<1%
4,500만~5,000만 달러
1%
5천만~5천5백만
32%
>5,500만 달러
64%
>5,500만 달러 64.3%
5천만~5천5백만 32%
4,500만~5,000만 달러 1.3%
<3,500만 달러 <1%
$62,852 거래량
$62,852 거래량
2026.05.04
<3,500만 달러
$5,267 거래량
1%
3,500만~4,000만 달러
$10,397 거래량
<1%
4,000만~4,500만
$5,317 거래량
<1%
4,500만~5,000만 달러
$9,955 거래량
1%
5천만~5천5백만
$15,690 거래량
32%
>5,500만 달러
$16,226 거래량
64%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
거래량
$62,852종료일
2026.05.04마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$62,852종료일
2026.05.04마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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