Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,781 거래량
$26,781 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
94%
민주당
6%
$26,781 거래량
$26,781 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$16,580 거래량
94%
민주당
$10,201 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$26,781종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,781종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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