Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, a D+27 seat centered on Newark with a plurality African American population, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won her 2024 special and full-term races by 81% and 74% respectively against perennial Republican challenger Carmen Bucco, faces minimal primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 primaries, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Despite her ongoing federal appeal of assault charges from a 2025 ICE facility incident—trial delayed with motions denied—forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. Upsets could stem from a pre-election conviction, a stronger GOP nominee, or a national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,838 거래량
$14,838 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$14,838 거래량
$14,838 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,360 거래량
93%
공화당
$7,478 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, a D+27 seat centered on Newark with a plurality African American population, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won her 2024 special and full-term races by 81% and 74% respectively against perennial Republican challenger Carmen Bucco, faces minimal primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 primaries, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Despite her ongoing federal appeal of assault charges from a 2025 ICE facility incident—trial delayed with motions denied—forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. Upsets could stem from a pre-election conviction, a stronger GOP nominee, or a national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$14,838종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, a D+27 seat centered on Newark with a plurality African American population, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won her 2024 special and full-term races by 81% and 74% respectively against perennial Republican challenger Carmen Bucco, faces minimal primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 primaries, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Despite her ongoing federal appeal of assault charges from a 2025 ICE facility incident—trial delayed with motions denied—forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. Upsets could stem from a pre-election conviction, a stronger GOP nominee, or a national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,838종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, a D+27 seat centered on Newark with a plurality African American population, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won her 2024 special and full-term races by 81% and 74% respectively against perennial Republican challenger Carmen Bucco, faces minimal primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 primaries, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Despite her ongoing federal appeal of assault charges from a 2025 ICE facility incident—trial delayed with motions denied—forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic. Upsets could stem from a pre-election conviction, a stronger GOP nominee, or a national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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