Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's fundraising momentum and attacks on freshman incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan's stock trades, which contradict his prior pledge to ban congressional trading. Recent Q1 2026 filings show Cognetti outraising Bresnahan, bolstering her cash position ahead of the May 19 primaries where both are unopposed. The Cook Political Report shifted the race to Toss Up on April 8 amid these vulnerabilities, with a House Majority PAC poll indicating Cognetti ahead 45%-43%. In this battleground northeast Pennsylvania district key to House control, midterm dynamics against the slim GOP majority further tilt trader sentiment toward the Democratic challenger.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
67%
Republican Party
32%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$319 거래량
67%
Republican Party
$147 거래량
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's fundraising momentum and attacks on freshman incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan's stock trades, which contradict his prior pledge to ban congressional trading. Recent Q1 2026 filings show Cognetti outraising Bresnahan, bolstering her cash position ahead of the May 19 primaries where both are unopposed. The Cook Political Report shifted the race to Toss Up on April 8 amid these vulnerabilities, with a House Majority PAC poll indicating Cognetti ahead 45%-43%. In this battleground northeast Pennsylvania district key to House control, midterm dynamics against the slim GOP majority further tilt trader sentiment toward the Democratic challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
거래량
$466종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's fundraising momentum and attacks on freshman incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan's stock trades, which contradict his prior pledge to ban congressional trading. Recent Q1 2026 filings show Cognetti outraising Bresnahan, bolstering her cash position ahead of the May 19 primaries where both are unopposed. The Cook Political Report shifted the race to Toss Up on April 8 amid these vulnerabilities, with a House Majority PAC poll indicating Cognetti ahead 45%-43%. In this battleground northeast Pennsylvania district key to House control, midterm dynamics against the slim GOP majority further tilt trader sentiment toward the Democratic challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$466종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 66% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's fundraising momentum and attacks on freshman incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan's stock trades, which contradict his prior pledge to ban congressional trading. Recent Q1 2026 filings show Cognetti outraising Bresnahan, bolstering her cash position ahead of the May 19 primaries where both are unopposed. The Cook Political Report shifted the race to Toss Up on April 8 amid these vulnerabilities, with a House Majority PAC poll indicating Cognetti ahead 45%-43%. In this battleground northeast Pennsylvania district key to House control, midterm dynamics against the slim GOP majority further tilt trader sentiment toward the Democratic challenger.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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