In Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 67.5% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election, ahead of the Republican incumbent. The seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features a freshman GOP representative elected by a narrow margin in 2024 in a district with an R+4 partisan voting index. The May 2026 primaries confirmed the matchup between Republican Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti. Recent scrutiny of the incumbent's stock trading activity has supplied Democrats with a line of attack, while broader midterm dynamics typically boost the opposition party. These elements sustain the current pricing despite the district's recent Republican tilt.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
77%
Republican Party
50%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$605 거래량
77%
Republican Party
$329 거래량
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 67.5% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election, ahead of the Republican incumbent. The seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features a freshman GOP representative elected by a narrow margin in 2024 in a district with an R+4 partisan voting index. The May 2026 primaries confirmed the matchup between Republican Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti. Recent scrutiny of the incumbent's stock trading activity has supplied Democrats with a line of attack, while broader midterm dynamics typically boost the opposition party. These elements sustain the current pricing despite the district's recent Republican tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
거래량
$934종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 67.5% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election, ahead of the Republican incumbent. The seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features a freshman GOP representative elected by a narrow margin in 2024 in a district with an R+4 partisan voting index. The May 2026 primaries confirmed the matchup between Republican Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti. Recent scrutiny of the incumbent's stock trading activity has supplied Democrats with a line of attack, while broader midterm dynamics typically boost the opposition party. These elements sustain the current pricing despite the district's recent Republican tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$934종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 67.5% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election, ahead of the Republican incumbent. The seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features a freshman GOP representative elected by a narrow margin in 2024 in a district with an R+4 partisan voting index. The May 2026 primaries confirmed the matchup between Republican Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti. Recent scrutiny of the incumbent's stock trading activity has supplied Democrats with a line of attack, while broader midterm dynamics typically boost the opposition party. These elements sustain the current pricing despite the district's recent Republican tilt.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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