Texas' 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat encompassing Lubbock and Abilene areas, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 93% implied probability for the November general election winner, driven by the district's strong partisan lean and weak Democratic opposition from nominee Kyle Rable, who won an uncontested primary. Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement opened the race, but the March 3 Republican primary—where businessman Tom Sell and conservative activist Abraham Enriquez advanced to the May 26 runoff—ensured a battle-tested GOP nominee without fracturing party unity. Absent general election polls, historical base rates for similar deep-red districts underpin the odds. Realistic challenges include a post-runoff Republican scandal, unprecedented national Democratic midterm surge, or legal hurdles, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,954 거래량
93%
Democratic Party
$5,881 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat encompassing Lubbock and Abilene areas, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 93% implied probability for the November general election winner, driven by the district's strong partisan lean and weak Democratic opposition from nominee Kyle Rable, who won an uncontested primary. Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement opened the race, but the March 3 Republican primary—where businessman Tom Sell and conservative activist Abraham Enriquez advanced to the May 26 runoff—ensured a battle-tested GOP nominee without fracturing party unity. Absent general election polls, historical base rates for similar deep-red districts underpin the odds. Realistic challenges include a post-runoff Republican scandal, unprecedented national Democratic midterm surge, or legal hurdles, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$7,835종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat encompassing Lubbock and Abilene areas, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 93% implied probability for the November general election winner, driven by the district's strong partisan lean and weak Democratic opposition from nominee Kyle Rable, who won an uncontested primary. Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement opened the race, but the March 3 Republican primary—where businessman Tom Sell and conservative activist Abraham Enriquez advanced to the May 26 runoff—ensured a battle-tested GOP nominee without fracturing party unity. Absent general election polls, historical base rates for similar deep-red districts underpin the odds. Realistic challenges include a post-runoff Republican scandal, unprecedented national Democratic midterm surge, or legal hurdles, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,835종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas' 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat encompassing Lubbock and Abilene areas, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 93% implied probability for the November general election winner, driven by the district's strong partisan lean and weak Democratic opposition from nominee Kyle Rable, who won an uncontested primary. Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement opened the race, but the March 3 Republican primary—where businessman Tom Sell and conservative activist Abraham Enriquez advanced to the May 26 runoff—ensured a battle-tested GOP nominee without fracturing party unity. Absent general election polls, historical base rates for similar deep-red districts underpin the odds. Realistic challenges include a post-runoff Republican scandal, unprecedented national Democratic midterm surge, or legal hurdles, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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