Texas' 32nd Congressional District, redrawn in 2025 mid-decade redistricting to favor Republicans with a projected R+17 partisan lean and 55.7% Trump support in 2024 presidential results, drives trader consensus heavily toward the Republican Party at 76.5% implied probability. Open seat after Democrat Julie Johnson shifted to TX-33, the March 3 primaries secured Jace Yarbrough as GOP nominee after leading with 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, bolstered by endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrat Dan Barrios won his primary 60%-40%, but trails in fundraising with minimal cash on hand versus Yarbrough's advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with general election set for November 3 amid no public polling shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,339 거래량
$25,339 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
77%
민주당
18%
$25,339 거래량
$25,339 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
$25,181 거래량
77%
민주당
$158 거래량
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 32nd Congressional District, redrawn in 2025 mid-decade redistricting to favor Republicans with a projected R+17 partisan lean and 55.7% Trump support in 2024 presidential results, drives trader consensus heavily toward the Republican Party at 76.5% implied probability. Open seat after Democrat Julie Johnson shifted to TX-33, the March 3 primaries secured Jace Yarbrough as GOP nominee after leading with 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, bolstered by endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrat Dan Barrios won his primary 60%-40%, but trails in fundraising with minimal cash on hand versus Yarbrough's advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with general election set for November 3 amid no public polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$25,339종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 32nd Congressional District, redrawn in 2025 mid-decade redistricting to favor Republicans with a projected R+17 partisan lean and 55.7% Trump support in 2024 presidential results, drives trader consensus heavily toward the Republican Party at 76.5% implied probability. Open seat after Democrat Julie Johnson shifted to TX-33, the March 3 primaries secured Jace Yarbrough as GOP nominee after leading with 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, bolstered by endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrat Dan Barrios won his primary 60%-40%, but trails in fundraising with minimal cash on hand versus Yarbrough's advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with general election set for November 3 amid no public polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,339종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas' 32nd Congressional District, redrawn in 2025 mid-decade redistricting to favor Republicans with a projected R+17 partisan lean and 55.7% Trump support in 2024 presidential results, drives trader consensus heavily toward the Republican Party at 76.5% implied probability. Open seat after Democrat Julie Johnson shifted to TX-33, the March 3 primaries secured Jace Yarbrough as GOP nominee after leading with 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, bolstered by endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrat Dan Barrios won his primary 60%-40%, but trails in fundraising with minimal cash on hand versus Yarbrough's advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with general election set for November 3 amid no public polling shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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