Trader consensus reflects the absence of any congressional legislation authorizing a US military draft in 2026, despite recent geopolitical escalations including US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and interventions in Venezuela. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026—streamlining the draft pool if needed but not activating conscription, which requires amending the Military Selective Service Act via separate floor votes and presidential approval. Recent April reports on this provision sparked misinformation, yet no bills for induction have advanced amid recruiting incentives like raised enlistment age to 42 and eased marijuana policies; historical post-Vietnam aversion further bolsters the 91.5% "No" implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$179,532 거래량
$179,532 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$179,532 거래량
$179,532 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any congressional legislation authorizing a US military draft in 2026, despite recent geopolitical escalations including US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and interventions in Venezuela. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026—streamlining the draft pool if needed but not activating conscription, which requires amending the Military Selective Service Act via separate floor votes and presidential approval. Recent April reports on this provision sparked misinformation, yet no bills for induction have advanced amid recruiting incentives like raised enlistment age to 42 and eased marijuana policies; historical post-Vietnam aversion further bolsters the 91.5% "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
거래량
$179,532종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any congressional legislation authorizing a US military draft in 2026, despite recent geopolitical escalations including US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and interventions in Venezuela. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026—streamlining the draft pool if needed but not activating conscription, which requires amending the Military Selective Service Act via separate floor votes and presidential approval. Recent April reports on this provision sparked misinformation, yet no bills for induction have advanced amid recruiting incentives like raised enlistment age to 42 and eased marijuana policies; historical post-Vietnam aversion further bolsters the 91.5% "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$179,532종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the absence of any congressional legislation authorizing a US military draft in 2026, despite recent geopolitical escalations including US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and interventions in Venezuela. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026—streamlining the draft pool if needed but not activating conscription, which requires amending the Military Selective Service Act via separate floor votes and presidential approval. Recent April reports on this provision sparked misinformation, yet no bills for induction have advanced amid recruiting incentives like raised enlistment age to 42 and eased marijuana policies; historical post-Vietnam aversion further bolsters the 91.5% "No" implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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