Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her name recognition from prior service in the district, dominant fundraising exceeding $2 million cash-on-hand reported in early April, and key endorsements including the DCCC's Red to Blue program in late February, EMILYs List, and Sens. Warner and Kaine. James Osyf holds second at 7.6% amid lingering support despite his December suspension to consolidate the field, while Matt Strickler and Burk Stringfellow trail at 4% each due to limited resources and profiles. No public polls exist, leaving odds shaped by establishment backing and financial edges in this crowded primary.