The retirement of incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse in December 2025 opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat in agriculture-heavy central Washington with a partisan voter index of R+6, driving trader consensus to an 82% implied probability for a GOP hold. Recent Federal Election Commission filings released this week highlight a dominant Republican fundraising leader among a crowded GOP primary field—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Amanda McKinney—outpacing sparse Democratic challengers like John Duresky, reinforcing the party's structural edge. The nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4 remains a key milestone, where Democrats would need a top finisher to contest the November general in this battleground but historically GOP-favored district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,963 거래량
$23,963 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
82%
민주당
15%
$23,963 거래량
$23,963 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$11,492 거래량
82%
민주당
$12,470 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse in December 2025 opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat in agriculture-heavy central Washington with a partisan voter index of R+6, driving trader consensus to an 82% implied probability for a GOP hold. Recent Federal Election Commission filings released this week highlight a dominant Republican fundraising leader among a crowded GOP primary field—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Amanda McKinney—outpacing sparse Democratic challengers like John Duresky, reinforcing the party's structural edge. The nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4 remains a key milestone, where Democrats would need a top finisher to contest the November general in this battleground but historically GOP-favored district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$23,963종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse in December 2025 opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat in agriculture-heavy central Washington with a partisan voter index of R+6, driving trader consensus to an 82% implied probability for a GOP hold. Recent Federal Election Commission filings released this week highlight a dominant Republican fundraising leader among a crowded GOP primary field—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Amanda McKinney—outpacing sparse Democratic challengers like John Duresky, reinforcing the party's structural edge. The nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4 remains a key milestone, where Democrats would need a top finisher to contest the November general in this battleground but historically GOP-favored district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,963종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse in December 2025 opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat in agriculture-heavy central Washington with a partisan voter index of R+6, driving trader consensus to an 82% implied probability for a GOP hold. Recent Federal Election Commission filings released this week highlight a dominant Republican fundraising leader among a crowded GOP primary field—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Amanda McKinney—outpacing sparse Democratic challengers like John Duresky, reinforcing the party's structural edge. The nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4 remains a key milestone, where Democrats would need a top finisher to contest the November general in this battleground but historically GOP-favored district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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