Wisconsin's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore secured reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, underscoring entrenched voter patterns in this Milwaukee-area seat. Republican primary candidates have filed for the August 2026 contest, yet the general-election environment shows little movement that would narrow the gap. Trader consensus around a Democratic hold aligns with historical margins and structural factors such as voter registration and past presidential results. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, substantial national political realignment favoring Republicans, or successful legal challenges to district boundaries ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,872 거래량
$26,872 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$26,872 거래량
$26,872 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,664 거래량
95%
공화당
$19,208 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore secured reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, underscoring entrenched voter patterns in this Milwaukee-area seat. Republican primary candidates have filed for the August 2026 contest, yet the general-election environment shows little movement that would narrow the gap. Trader consensus around a Democratic hold aligns with historical margins and structural factors such as voter registration and past presidential results. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, substantial national political realignment favoring Republicans, or successful legal challenges to district boundaries ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$26,872종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore secured reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, underscoring entrenched voter patterns in this Milwaukee-area seat. Republican primary candidates have filed for the August 2026 contest, yet the general-election environment shows little movement that would narrow the gap. Trader consensus around a Democratic hold aligns with historical margins and structural factors such as voter registration and past presidential results. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, substantial national political realignment favoring Republicans, or successful legal challenges to district boundaries ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,872종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore secured reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, underscoring entrenched voter patterns in this Milwaukee-area seat. Republican primary candidates have filed for the August 2026 contest, yet the general-election environment shows little movement that would narrow the gap. Trader consensus around a Democratic hold aligns with historical margins and structural factors such as voter registration and past presidential results. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, substantial national political realignment favoring Republicans, or successful legal challenges to district boundaries ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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