President Isaac Herzog has delayed any decision on Benjamin Netanyahu’s November 2025 pardon request in the ongoing corruption trial, instead directing efforts toward mediation and a potential plea agreement as of late April 2026. This stance follows months of review by the Justice Ministry’s Pardons Department and external pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, yet no subsequent actions have advanced the pardon process. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, the absence of movement on formal clemency, combined with Herzog’s explicit preference for alternative legal resolutions and procedural requirements under Israeli law, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 90.9% implied probability for “No.” Scheduled diplomatic or domestic events offer limited scope to alter this trajectory before the deadline.