Greg Stanton’s commanding position in the AZ-04 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in Maricopa County suburbs, his status as a four-term incumbent who won reelection with 52.7% in 2024, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising. Recent developments such as Stanton’s September endorsement from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police have reinforced trader consensus on his advantage. A late national Republican surge, candidate health event, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows limited pathways for such shifts before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$33,718 Wol.
$33,718 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
6%
$33,718 Wol.
$33,718 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
$25,677 Wol.
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
$8,041 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton’s commanding position in the AZ-04 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in Maricopa County suburbs, his status as a four-term incumbent who won reelection with 52.7% in 2024, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising. Recent developments such as Stanton’s September endorsement from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police have reinforced trader consensus on his advantage. A late national Republican surge, candidate health event, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows limited pathways for such shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,718Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton’s commanding position in the AZ-04 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in Maricopa County suburbs, his status as a four-term incumbent who won reelection with 52.7% in 2024, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising. Recent developments such as Stanton’s September endorsement from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police have reinforced trader consensus on his advantage. A late national Republican surge, candidate health event, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows limited pathways for such shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$33,718Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Stanton’s commanding position in the AZ-04 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in Maricopa County suburbs, his status as a four-term incumbent who won reelection with 52.7% in 2024, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising. Recent developments such as Stanton’s September endorsement from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police have reinforced trader consensus on his advantage. A late national Republican surge, candidate health event, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows limited pathways for such shifts before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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