The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$43,796 Wol.
$43,796 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$43,796 Wol.
$43,796 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,622 Wol.
97%
Republican Party
$17,173 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$43,796Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$43,796Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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