Bipartisan congressional consensus on Section 702's value for foreign intelligence collection on non-U.S. persons abroad underpins the near-certain trader pricing, reinforced by repeated past reauthorizations and current national security priorities including counterterrorism and competition with China. The 2024 RISAA extension through April 2026, followed by short-term measures amid debates over warrant requirements and FBI querying reforms, has kept the authority operational, with FISA Court certifications grandfathering collection through March 2027 even if statutory language lapses temporarily. Primary drivers include institutional pressure from intelligence agencies and leadership statements emphasizing continuity during active threats, alongside procedural momentum in the House and Senate. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include prolonged stalemates tied to unrelated confirmation fights or last-minute reform amendments that fracture support, though historical patterns and the program's entrenched role make outright failure before any final deadline improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$60,583 Wol.
$60,583 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
$60,583 Wol.
$60,583 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan congressional consensus on Section 702's value for foreign intelligence collection on non-U.S. persons abroad underpins the near-certain trader pricing, reinforced by repeated past reauthorizations and current national security priorities including counterterrorism and competition with China. The 2024 RISAA extension through April 2026, followed by short-term measures amid debates over warrant requirements and FBI querying reforms, has kept the authority operational, with FISA Court certifications grandfathering collection through March 2027 even if statutory language lapses temporarily. Primary drivers include institutional pressure from intelligence agencies and leadership statements emphasizing continuity during active threats, alongside procedural momentum in the House and Senate. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include prolonged stalemates tied to unrelated confirmation fights or last-minute reform amendments that fracture support, though historical patterns and the program's entrenched role make outright failure before any final deadline improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$60,583Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan congressional consensus on Section 702's value for foreign intelligence collection on non-U.S. persons abroad underpins the near-certain trader pricing, reinforced by repeated past reauthorizations and current national security priorities including counterterrorism and competition with China. The 2024 RISAA extension through April 2026, followed by short-term measures amid debates over warrant requirements and FBI querying reforms, has kept the authority operational, with FISA Court certifications grandfathering collection through March 2027 even if statutory language lapses temporarily. Primary drivers include institutional pressure from intelligence agencies and leadership statements emphasizing continuity during active threats, alongside procedural momentum in the House and Senate. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include prolonged stalemates tied to unrelated confirmation fights or last-minute reform amendments that fracture support, though historical patterns and the program's entrenched role make outright failure before any final deadline improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$60,583Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Bipartisan congressional consensus on Section 702's value for foreign intelligence collection on non-U.S. persons abroad underpins the near-certain trader pricing, reinforced by repeated past reauthorizations and current national security priorities including counterterrorism and competition with China. The 2024 RISAA extension through April 2026, followed by short-term measures amid debates over warrant requirements and FBI querying reforms, has kept the authority operational, with FISA Court certifications grandfathering collection through March 2027 even if statutory language lapses temporarily. Primary drivers include institutional pressure from intelligence agencies and leadership statements emphasizing continuity during active threats, alongside procedural momentum in the House and Senate. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include prolonged stalemates tied to unrelated confirmation fights or last-minute reform amendments that fracture support, though historical patterns and the program's entrenched role make outright failure before any final deadline improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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