**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) being signed into law in 2026 reflects its repeated passage in the House but consistent failure to advance through the Senate.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House on April 10, 2025 (220-208) and again in a related form (SAVE America Act) on February 11, 2026 (218-213). It was received in the Senate but has not overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold needed to end debate. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and have been unable to secure the additional Democratic support required, with at least one Republican (Sen. Lisa Murkowski) opposing procedural moves. Senate debate in March 2026 ended without passage, and an effort to attach the measure as an amendment to a DHS funding bill failed in June 2026 when four Republicans joined Democrats to block inclusion. No further legislative vehicles or procedural paths have produced a viable Senate majority as of mid-June 2026, leaving the bill stalled despite White House and House Republican prioritization. This pattern of House approval followed by Senate blockage under current chamber dynamics underpins trader expectations that enactment will not occur this calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$168,367 Wol.
$168,367 Wol.
$168,367 Wol.
$168,367 Wol.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) being signed into law in 2026 reflects its repeated passage in the House but consistent failure to advance through the Senate.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House on April 10, 2025 (220-208) and again in a related form (SAVE America Act) on February 11, 2026 (218-213). It was received in the Senate but has not overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold needed to end debate. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and have been unable to secure the additional Democratic support required, with at least one Republican (Sen. Lisa Murkowski) opposing procedural moves. Senate debate in March 2026 ended without passage, and an effort to attach the measure as an amendment to a DHS funding bill failed in June 2026 when four Republicans joined Democrats to block inclusion. No further legislative vehicles or procedural paths have produced a viable Senate majority as of mid-June 2026, leaving the bill stalled despite White House and House Republican prioritization. This pattern of House approval followed by Senate blockage under current chamber dynamics underpins trader expectations that enactment will not occur this calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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