**The high probability assigned to "No" on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22 / SAVE America Act) becoming law in 2026 stems primarily from repeated Senate procedural failures and insufficient support to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.** The House has passed versions of the measure requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, along with photo ID and related provisions, including votes of 218-213 in February 2026 and similar tallies on attachments to other bills. However, the Senate rejected it as an amendment to the DHS funding bill in June 2026 (48-50), with four Republicans—Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, and Thom Tillis—joining Democrats. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated he sees little prospect of floor action for the remainder of the session due to the vote shortfall. Further attempts to attach the provisions to must-pass legislation such as the NDAA in July 2026 cleared the House but faced explicit opposition in the Senate, where Democratic leaders described it as dead on arrival. Recent September 2026 discussions center on using budget reconciliation to bypass the filibuster for core elements like citizenship verification and photo ID, yet these efforts confront tight timelines before the midterms, internal Republican divisions, and the need for unified party support in both chambers. With no enacted version as of mid-September and limited remaining legislative windows, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers in the upper chamber.