Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a moderating air mass over the Sea of Marmara, positioning Istanbul’s September 14 maximum near 22°C as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the 61% market-implied probability, driven by weak pressure gradients and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Historical September baselines average 24–26°C, yet recent model runs show cooler-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures and a passing weak trough suppressing peaks. Traders weigh potential revisions from the next 12–24 hour model updates, with 23°C or 21°C as secondary scenarios if steering patterns shift. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance and local observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
22°C 61%
24°C 23%
23°C 22%
21°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
9%
19°C
6%
20°C
10%
21°C
21%
22°C
61%
23°C
22%
24°C
23%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
12%
22°C 61%
24°C 23%
23°C 22%
21°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Wol.
9%
19°C
$0 Wol.
6%
20°C
$0 Wol.
10%
21°C
$0 Wol.
21%
22°C
$181 Wol.
61%
23°C
$62 Wol.
22%
24°C
$0 Wol.
23%
25°C
$0 Wol.
7%
26°C
$0 Wol.
5%
27°C
$0 Wol.
4%
28°C or higher
$0 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a moderating air mass over the Sea of Marmara, positioning Istanbul’s September 14 maximum near 22°C as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the 61% market-implied probability, driven by weak pressure gradients and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Historical September baselines average 24–26°C, yet recent model runs show cooler-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures and a passing weak trough suppressing peaks. Traders weigh potential revisions from the next 12–24 hour model updates, with 23°C or 21°C as secondary scenarios if steering patterns shift. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance and local observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$243Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a moderating air mass over the Sea of Marmara, positioning Istanbul’s September 14 maximum near 22°C as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the 61% market-implied probability, driven by weak pressure gradients and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Historical September baselines average 24–26°C, yet recent model runs show cooler-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures and a passing weak trough suppressing peaks. Traders weigh potential revisions from the next 12–24 hour model updates, with 23°C or 21°C as secondary scenarios if steering patterns shift. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance and local observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$243Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a moderating air mass over the Sea of Marmara, positioning Istanbul’s September 14 maximum near 22°C as the consensus outcome. This aligns with the 61% market-implied probability, driven by weak pressure gradients and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Historical September baselines average 24–26°C, yet recent model runs show cooler-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures and a passing weak trough suppressing peaks. Traders weigh potential revisions from the next 12–24 hour model updates, with 23°C or 21°C as secondary scenarios if steering patterns shift. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance and local observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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