Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 Wol.
$107,616 Wol.
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 Wol.
$107,616 Wol.
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
$2,664 Wol.
No
14°C
$2,437 Wol.
No
15°C
$1,580 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,779 Wol.
No
17°C
$2,640 Wol.
No
18°C
$5,039 Wol.
No
19°C
$8,464 Wol.
No
20°C
$14,266 Wol.
No
21°C
$32,225 Wol.
Yes
22°C
$17,066 Wol.
No
23°C or higher
$19,457 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Wolumen
$107,616Data zakończenia
Apr 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$107,616Data zakończenia
Apr 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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