**The account @khamenei_ir, now operated in the name of the late Supreme Leader, maintains a low-volume pattern of reposting archival statements and occasional historical quotes rather than issuing frequent new content.** In the weeks leading into mid-August 2026, activity has remained sporadic—typically one or two posts per day at most, often tied to religious observances such as Arbaeen commemorations or longstanding political themes—consistent with post-transition management of the feed. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic Iranian developments in the immediate period have prompted accelerated posting. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability (81.5%) to fewer than five posts for the August 14–21 window, with the next bracket (5–9) at just 14% reflecting the possibility of a modest uptick around scheduled religious or memorial dates. Higher ranges sit near zero because sustained daily output would require a shift in operational tempo not observed since the leadership transition.