Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes remains the dominant driver of trader expectations for minimal activity on his official X account in the coming week. The account has continued issuing occasional official statements or archival material under his name, yet volume has stayed low amid Iran’s leadership transition to an interim council and successor figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei. Ongoing regional tensions, including August disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and intermittent exchanges with U.S. and Israeli forces, have not produced the frequent public messaging typical of earlier periods. Market pricing reflects the view that structural constraints on the office and the absence of the former leader make sustained posting unlikely within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKhamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
<5 64%
5-9 28%
10-14 11%
15-19 2.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
<5
64%
5-9
28%
10-14
11%
15-19
3%
20-24
1%
25-29
2%
30-34
2%
35-39
2%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 64%
5-9 28%
10-14 11%
15-19 2.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
<5
$3,383 Wol.
64%
5-9
$1,044 Wol.
28%
10-14
$191 Wol.
11%
15-19
$13 Wol.
3%
20-24
$13 Wol.
1%
25-29
$13 Wol.
2%
30-34
$13 Wol.
2%
35-39
$13 Wol.
2%
40-44
$18 Wol.
1%
45-49
$18 Wol.
1%
50-54
$13 Wol.
1%
55-59
$13 Wol.
1%
60+
$13 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes remains the dominant driver of trader expectations for minimal activity on his official X account in the coming week. The account has continued issuing occasional official statements or archival material under his name, yet volume has stayed low amid Iran’s leadership transition to an interim council and successor figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei. Ongoing regional tensions, including August disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and intermittent exchanges with U.S. and Israeli forces, have not produced the frequent public messaging typical of earlier periods. Market pricing reflects the view that structural constraints on the office and the absence of the former leader make sustained posting unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,758Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes remains the dominant driver of trader expectations for minimal activity on his official X account in the coming week. The account has continued issuing occasional official statements or archival material under his name, yet volume has stayed low amid Iran’s leadership transition to an interim council and successor figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei. Ongoing regional tensions, including August disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and intermittent exchanges with U.S. and Israeli forces, have not produced the frequent public messaging typical of earlier periods. Market pricing reflects the view that structural constraints on the office and the absence of the former leader make sustained posting unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wolumen
$4,758Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes remains the dominant driver of trader expectations for minimal activity on his official X account in the coming week. The account has continued issuing occasional official statements or archival material under his name, yet volume has stayed low amid Iran’s leadership transition to an interim council and successor figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei. Ongoing regional tensions, including August disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and intermittent exchanges with U.S. and Israeli forces, have not produced the frequent public messaging typical of earlier periods. Market pricing reflects the view that structural constraints on the office and the absence of the former leader make sustained posting unlikely within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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