**Opposition parties launched an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te in December 2025 over a fiscal allocation dispute, but the Legislative Yuan rejected it on May 19, 2026, by a 56-50 vote that fell well short of the required two-thirds threshold of 76 lawmakers.** Taiwan’s constitution mandates a Legislative Yuan proposal supported by at least half its members and passage by two-thirds before referral to the Constitutional Court; the May outcome ended the only active proceeding. With the June 30, 2026, deadline now just weeks away and no new motion introduced or scheduled, traders assign a 98.9 percent probability to “No,” viewing the procedural barriers and compressed timeline as decisive. The opposition’s combined seats proved insufficient even for the initial vote, and constitutional steps cannot realistically conclude before the cutoff. A fresh motion would require rapid legislative action and supermajority support that current seat distribution and recent voting patterns make improbable. Late-breaking developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen legislative surprise or court intervention, though none appear imminent given the exhausted process and calendar constraints.