**In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding, the Quebec provincial election on October 5, 2026, features a competitive field with no incumbent advantage after Marie-Louise Tardif (CAQ) opted not to seek re-election.** Projections from 338Canada and Vote-Scope models show a toss-up between the CAQ and PQ, with projected vote shares in the low 30s for each and smaller shares for the PCQ and Liberals. This reflects broader provincial shifts, including declining CAQ support and rising PQ strength in the Mauricie region. Nominated candidates include Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ, family physician focused on public health access), Guy Veillette (CAQ, former journalist and local political attaché), Charles Paquin (PCQ), and Laurent Bélisle (Liberal). The nomination period runs until September 17, leaving room for further developments. Trader pricing at or near 50% across most options captures the absence of a dominant frontrunner, local candidate profiles, and the potential for late campaign events or turnout patterns in this mixed riding to influence the outcome.