**Current ensemble forecasts and observational trends point to a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Buenos Aires on September 24, 2026, creating closely matched market probabilities across mid-range outcomes while sustaining sizable implied odds on the 7 °C-or-below and 17 °C-or-higher tails.** Northerly winds advecting milder maritime air from the subtropical Atlantic have limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, keeping overnight lows from dropping sharply despite the early-spring date. Model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance shows the daily minimum occurring in the pre-dawn hours, with temperatures rising steadily through the morning as insolation increases under mostly sunny conditions and highs reaching the low 20s °C. Historical September climatology for the city features average minima around 10–12 °C, but recent northerly flow has elevated baselines relative to earlier cold outbreaks this month. Traders appear to weigh the narrow but non-negligible spread in model solutions—particularly potential shifts in cloud cover or wind direction overnight—against the risk of a stronger-than-expected cold pool. With resolution hinging on official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations, the balanced probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty in the final 24-hour steering pattern and boundary-layer response.