Recent model consensus from sources like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a heatwave easing around July 12, with daytime highs near 27–29°C giving way to overnight radiative cooling that could produce minimums of 14–18°C at London stations. Variable cloud cover and light winds are the key differentiators, as clearer skies promote stronger surface cooling while increased humidity or breeze limits the drop. Historical July lows average near 14°C, but current warm advection keeps extremes below 13°C or above 20°C improbable. Traders see tight clustering around 16–18°C because ensemble spreads remain wide this close to the event, with fresh model runs and observational updates likely to resolve the range before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on July 12?
Lowest temperature in London on July 12?
17°C 100%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$11,217 Wol.
$11,217 Wol.
Jul 12, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
17°C 100%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$11,217 Wol.
$11,217 Wol.
Jul 12, 2026
12°C or below
$668 Wol.
No
13°C
$546 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,005 Wol.
No
15°C
$816 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,281 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,954 Wol.
Yes
18°C
$1,962 Wol.
No
19°C
$584 Wol.
No
20°C
$418 Wol.
No
21°C
$1,027 Wol.
No
22°C or higher
$959 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a heatwave easing around July 12, with daytime highs near 27–29°C giving way to overnight radiative cooling that could produce minimums of 14–18°C at London stations. Variable cloud cover and light winds are the key differentiators, as clearer skies promote stronger surface cooling while increased humidity or breeze limits the drop. Historical July lows average near 14°C, but current warm advection keeps extremes below 13°C or above 20°C improbable. Traders see tight clustering around 16–18°C because ensemble spreads remain wide this close to the event, with fresh model runs and observational updates likely to resolve the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$11,217Data zakończenia
Jul 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47de9d...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a heatwave easing around July 12, with daytime highs near 27–29°C giving way to overnight radiative cooling that could produce minimums of 14–18°C at London stations. Variable cloud cover and light winds are the key differentiators, as clearer skies promote stronger surface cooling while increased humidity or breeze limits the drop. Historical July lows average near 14°C, but current warm advection keeps extremes below 13°C or above 20°C improbable. Traders see tight clustering around 16–18°C because ensemble spreads remain wide this close to the event, with fresh model runs and observational updates likely to resolve the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$11,217Data zakończenia
Jul 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47de9d...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent model consensus from sources like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a heatwave easing around July 12, with daytime highs near 27–29°C giving way to overnight radiative cooling that could produce minimums of 14–18°C at London stations. Variable cloud cover and light winds are the key differentiators, as clearer skies promote stronger surface cooling while increased humidity or breeze limits the drop. Historical July lows average near 14°C, but current warm advection keeps extremes below 13°C or above 20°C improbable. Traders see tight clustering around 16–18°C because ensemble spreads remain wide this close to the event, with fresh model runs and observational updates likely to resolve the range before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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