**Current forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between roughly 11–14°C amid widespread cloud cover, showers, and light easterly to southeasterly winds.** These conditions suppress strong nighttime radiative cooling while limiting daytime warming, keeping the diurnal range modest. Recent shifts from warmer southerly flow to cooler, moister air masses have introduced forecast spread, with some runs showing slightly deeper cooling under heavier rain and others maintaining milder readings. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the sub-9°C and 19°C+ tails because short-range model ensembles still diverge on exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which directly influence the overnight low. New model cycles and official updates from Russian meteorological services over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this uncertainty and shift probabilities toward the central temperature bins.