Recent forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a September 25 minimum near 21–22°C in Tokyo, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions, following recent frontal activity, favor the market’s leading 22°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability while keeping 21°C close behind. Clearer breaks overnight could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward 18–20°C or the 17°C-or-below bucket, whereas steadier precipitation and onshore flow would sustain warmer minima near 23°C. Updated model runs and JMA guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 25?
22°C 40%
17°C or below 32%
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
32%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
16%
21°C
29%
22°C
44%
23°C
16%
24°C
28%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 40%
17°C or below 32%
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Wol.
32%
18°C
$0 Wol.
28%
19°C
$0 Wol.
28%
20°C
$0 Wol.
16%
21°C
$4 Wol.
29%
22°C
$309 Wol.
44%
23°C
$0 Wol.
16%
24°C
$0 Wol.
28%
25°C
$0 Wol.
28%
26°C
$0 Wol.
28%
27°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a September 25 minimum near 21–22°C in Tokyo, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions, following recent frontal activity, favor the market’s leading 22°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability while keeping 21°C close behind. Clearer breaks overnight could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward 18–20°C or the 17°C-or-below bucket, whereas steadier precipitation and onshore flow would sustain warmer minima near 23°C. Updated model runs and JMA guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$313Data zakończenia
Sep 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a September 25 minimum near 21–22°C in Tokyo, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions, following recent frontal activity, favor the market’s leading 22°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability while keeping 21°C close behind. Clearer breaks overnight could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward 18–20°C or the 17°C-or-below bucket, whereas steadier precipitation and onshore flow would sustain warmer minima near 23°C. Updated model runs and JMA guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$313Data zakończenia
Sep 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a September 25 minimum near 21–22°C in Tokyo, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions, following recent frontal activity, favor the market’s leading 22°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability while keeping 21°C close behind. Clearer breaks overnight could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward 18–20°C or the 17°C-or-below bucket, whereas steadier precipitation and onshore flow would sustain warmer minima near 23°C. Updated model runs and JMA guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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