A strengthening El Niño pattern, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, is suppressing North Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting a below-normal 2026 season with only a low probability of a Category 5 U.S. landfall. No major meteor airbursts above 10 kilotons TNT-equivalent, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes have occurred through mid-August, consistent with their historical rarity. First-half insured catastrophe losses remain below long-term trends amid heatwaves and smaller seismic events, while forecast models show limited near-term risk of the extreme thresholds that would resolve the market to Yes. Trader consensus at 74.5% for No reflects this combination of seasonal suppression and absence of outlier signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
26% szansa
$241,034 Wol.
$241,034 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
26% szansa
$241,034 Wol.
$241,034 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
A strengthening El Niño pattern, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, is suppressing North Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting a below-normal 2026 season with only a low probability of a Category 5 U.S. landfall. No major meteor airbursts above 10 kilotons TNT-equivalent, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes have occurred through mid-August, consistent with their historical rarity. First-half insured catastrophe losses remain below long-term trends amid heatwaves and smaller seismic events, while forecast models show limited near-term risk of the extreme thresholds that would resolve the market to Yes. Trader consensus at 74.5% for No reflects this combination of seasonal suppression and absence of outlier signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$241,034Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
A strengthening El Niño pattern, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, is suppressing North Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting a below-normal 2026 season with only a low probability of a Category 5 U.S. landfall. No major meteor airbursts above 10 kilotons TNT-equivalent, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes have occurred through mid-August, consistent with their historical rarity. First-half insured catastrophe losses remain below long-term trends amid heatwaves and smaller seismic events, while forecast models show limited near-term risk of the extreme thresholds that would resolve the market to Yes. Trader consensus at 74.5% for No reflects this combination of seasonal suppression and absence of outlier signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$241,034Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño pattern, confirmed by NOAA and other agencies, is suppressing North Atlantic hurricane activity and supporting a below-normal 2026 season with only a low probability of a Category 5 U.S. landfall. No major meteor airbursts above 10 kilotons TNT-equivalent, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes have occurred through mid-August, consistent with their historical rarity. First-half insured catastrophe losses remain below long-term trends amid heatwaves and smaller seismic events, while forecast models show limited near-term risk of the extreme thresholds that would resolve the market to Yes. Trader consensus at 74.5% for No reflects this combination of seasonal suppression and absence of outlier signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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