As of August 2026, trader consensus favors "No" at 76% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster, driven by the absence of Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes in official NOAA and USGS records through mid-year. ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate seasonal hurricane outlooks from NHC models align with historical baselines rather than extreme anomalies, reducing near-term odds of crossing resolution thresholds. Ongoing monitoring of seismic activity and atmospheric patterns shows typical variability without signals indicating imminent high-magnitude events, though late-year tropical cyclone or seismic developments could still shift dynamics before December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,528 Wol.
$232,528 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$232,528 Wol.
$232,528 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favors "No" at 76% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster, driven by the absence of Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes in official NOAA and USGS records through mid-year. ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate seasonal hurricane outlooks from NHC models align with historical baselines rather than extreme anomalies, reducing near-term odds of crossing resolution thresholds. Ongoing monitoring of seismic activity and atmospheric patterns shows typical variability without signals indicating imminent high-magnitude events, though late-year tropical cyclone or seismic developments could still shift dynamics before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$232,528Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favors "No" at 76% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster, driven by the absence of Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes in official NOAA and USGS records through mid-year. ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate seasonal hurricane outlooks from NHC models align with historical baselines rather than extreme anomalies, reducing near-term odds of crossing resolution thresholds. Ongoing monitoring of seismic activity and atmospheric patterns shows typical variability without signals indicating imminent high-magnitude events, though late-year tropical cyclone or seismic developments could still shift dynamics before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$232,528Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of August 2026, trader consensus favors "No" at 76% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster, driven by the absence of Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes in official NOAA and USGS records through mid-year. ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate seasonal hurricane outlooks from NHC models align with historical baselines rather than extreme anomalies, reducing near-term odds of crossing resolution thresholds. Ongoing monitoring of seismic activity and atmospheric patterns shows typical variability without signals indicating imminent high-magnitude events, though late-year tropical cyclone or seismic developments could still shift dynamics before December.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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