Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of events meeting the market's strict thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane, 10 kt+ meteor impact, VEI 6+ eruption, or 8.5+ magnitude earthquake—combined with current conditions. NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook projects only 1-3 major hurricanes this season, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds amid suppressed activity. Seismic monitoring shows recent quakes peaking at 7.8 magnitude without 8.5+ events, while volcanic unrest remains below super-eruption levels. Near-Earth object surveys confirm no imminent megaton-scale threats. These baselines, reinforced by ongoing agency data through year-end, sustain the market-implied probability despite inherent forecast variability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,656 Wol.
$232,656 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$232,656 Wol.
$232,656 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of events meeting the market's strict thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane, 10 kt+ meteor impact, VEI 6+ eruption, or 8.5+ magnitude earthquake—combined with current conditions. NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook projects only 1-3 major hurricanes this season, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds amid suppressed activity. Seismic monitoring shows recent quakes peaking at 7.8 magnitude without 8.5+ events, while volcanic unrest remains below super-eruption levels. Near-Earth object surveys confirm no imminent megaton-scale threats. These baselines, reinforced by ongoing agency data through year-end, sustain the market-implied probability despite inherent forecast variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$232,656Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of events meeting the market's strict thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane, 10 kt+ meteor impact, VEI 6+ eruption, or 8.5+ magnitude earthquake—combined with current conditions. NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook projects only 1-3 major hurricanes this season, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds amid suppressed activity. Seismic monitoring shows recent quakes peaking at 7.8 magnitude without 8.5+ events, while volcanic unrest remains below super-eruption levels. Near-Earth object surveys confirm no imminent megaton-scale threats. These baselines, reinforced by ongoing agency data through year-end, sustain the market-implied probability despite inherent forecast variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$232,656Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of events meeting the market's strict thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane, 10 kt+ meteor impact, VEI 6+ eruption, or 8.5+ magnitude earthquake—combined with current conditions. NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook projects only 1-3 major hurricanes this season, reducing Cat 5 landfall odds amid suppressed activity. Seismic monitoring shows recent quakes peaking at 7.8 magnitude without 8.5+ events, while volcanic unrest remains below super-eruption levels. Near-Earth object surveys confirm no imminent megaton-scale threats. These baselines, reinforced by ongoing agency data through year-end, sustain the market-implied probability despite inherent forecast variability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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