New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Midtown, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33 and delivered roughly 80 percent of the vote to the Democratic nominee in 2024. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement announcement in September 2025 opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026, while the Republican primary was canceled with Caroline Shinkle advancing unopposed. Multiple polls of the Democratic contest show a fluid field led by candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the eventual nominee faces negligible general-election opposition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic price therefore rests on entrenched partisan demographics and historical results. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or indictment involving the Democratic nominee, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural lean.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$20,211 Wol.
$20,211 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$20,211 Wol.
$20,211 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,248 Wol.
95%
Republican Party
$3,963 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Midtown, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33 and delivered roughly 80 percent of the vote to the Democratic nominee in 2024. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement announcement in September 2025 opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026, while the Republican primary was canceled with Caroline Shinkle advancing unopposed. Multiple polls of the Democratic contest show a fluid field led by candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the eventual nominee faces negligible general-election opposition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic price therefore rests on entrenched partisan demographics and historical results. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or indictment involving the Democratic nominee, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$20,211Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Midtown, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33 and delivered roughly 80 percent of the vote to the Democratic nominee in 2024. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement announcement in September 2025 opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026, while the Republican primary was canceled with Caroline Shinkle advancing unopposed. Multiple polls of the Democratic contest show a fluid field led by candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the eventual nominee faces negligible general-election opposition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic price therefore rests on entrenched partisan demographics and historical results. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or indictment involving the Democratic nominee, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$20,211Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing Manhattan neighborhoods such as the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Midtown, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33 and delivered roughly 80 percent of the vote to the Democratic nominee in 2024. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement announcement in September 2025 opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026, while the Republican primary was canceled with Caroline Shinkle advancing unopposed. Multiple polls of the Democratic contest show a fluid field led by candidates including Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the eventual nominee faces negligible general-election opposition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent Democratic price therefore rests on entrenched partisan demographics and historical results. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or indictment involving the Democratic nominee, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s structural lean.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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